Tim Tszyu Vs. Brian Mendoza: Odds, Records, Prediction

Although he’s been stuck for more than a year waiting for a shot at undisputed junior middleweight champion Jermell Charlo, it turns out Tim Tszyu now has a world title without ever getting his chance vs. Charlo. Without getting a chance vs. anybody, in fact. That’s why Tszyu sees his matchup vs. Brian Mendoza on Saturday as his opportunity to finally win a 154-pound world title (even though he’ll already have the belt in his possession). Here’s everything you need to know about Tim Tszyu vs. Brian Mendoza, including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

Charlo and Tszyu have metaphorically been circling each other since last year. The two were scheduled to meet in January for Charlo’s undisputed championship, but Charlo suffered a broken hand while training, pushing off the bout. Then, Charlo unexpectedly signed a deal to fight for Canelo Alvarez’s undisputed super middleweight championship (Alvarez dominated the surprisingly lackluster Charlo).

As soon as the bell rang to begin that matchup, one of the sanctioning bodies stripped Charlo of his 154-pound title and gave it to Tszyu. Charlo still has the other three titles. But now Tszyu is officially a world titlist as well.

“There was no celebration, no nothing when Charlo stepped in the ring against Canelo, and I became world champion. I’ll feel like a world champion once this fight with Mendoza is done,” Tszyu said. “I want to earn it that way. Brian and I are both in that top 1% of fighters in the world. He’s a style I haven’t faced before, and I know he thrives on that underdog mentality. So, he, of course, has my respect. But he’s in there with someone that’s a different breed, and it’s not going to end well for him. I promise to turn any remaining non-believers into believers. This is my time and my division now.”

A Tszyu victory could eventually lead to a meeting with Charlo in what would likely be for all the 154-pound titles. Even though Tszyu is a big betting favorite vs. Mendoza, that doesn’t mean Saturday’s fight will be an easy one.

Tszyu has big-fight experience and plenty of power, but Mendoza has stopped his last two high-profile opponents as well.

“I have more explosive shots,” Mendoza said this week, via ABC.net. “The thing about me is I have power, but I’m not just a power puncher. I don’t go in there trying to look for one shot. I’ll hurt you for 12 rounds.

“I do look for the knockout. I do want to put on a big show. That’s why I even got called here to this country in the first place for this title fight. But I’m in there to put punishment on you for 12 rounds—however long the fight needs to go for me to get that victory.”

Here’s more info on the Tim Tszyu vs. Brian Mendoza showdown that’ll be live from Australia that U.S. viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Tim Tszyu vs. Brian Mendoza odds

Tszyu is the betting favorite, and those putting money on the fight continue to favor him. As of this writing, Tszyu is the -715 favorite (bet $715 to win $100) while Mendoza is +450 (earn a $450 profit with a $100 wager). Considering Tszyu was -550 in the buildup to this matchup, bettors continue to wager on his money line, making him a more expensive bet. I’d avoid that money line, but I could see betting on Tszyu to win by stoppage at -163 or by stoppage between rounds 7-12 for +160.

Tim Tszyu vs. Brian Mendoza records

As Tszyu’s international profile continues to rise, the talent of his opponents has done the same. In his last four outings, Tszyu (23-0, 17 KOs) has faced a former world titlist and two former world title challengers. In most of those fights, he performed well, stopping former belt-holder Tony Harrison and beating Terrell Gausha and Takeshi Inoue by decision. He also has a victory against former title-holder Jeff Horn.

Mendoza (22-2, 16 KOs) is on a nice two-fight streak, stopping former unified junior middleweight champ Jeison Rosario and then knocking out the undefeated Sebastian Fundora. He did lose to Jesus Ramos in 2021, and two fights before that, he fell to the unheralded Larry Gomez. But if Mendoza ever wanted momentum on his side as he fought for a world title, this is the perfect time.

Tim Tszyu vs. Brian Mendoza prediction

Every time Tszyu steps into the ring, he seems to get better and better. At this point, you’d even have to make him the betting favorite against Charlo. Sure, Mendoza could be dangerous, especially with his power. But Mendoza was also getting soundly out-boxed by Fundora before Mendoza knocked him out. Tszyu won’t make the same mistake. Say, Tszyu by ninth-round stoppage.