Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Tarik Skubal throws during the second inning of Game 1 of the American League Wild Card baseball playoff against the Cleveland Guardians series in Cleveland, Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025. (AP Photo/Sue Ogrocki)
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The regular season is in the books, so it’s time to take another look at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. This is Cy week, and after taking a look at MLB park factors next week, we’ll look at the MVP races the week of 10/12.
If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball allowed by each ERA-qualifying pitcher, and calculate the damage they “should have” allowed based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the lower the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each pitcher’s “Tru” ERA-, and then spread it across their innings bulk to determine their “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average (TPRAA).
While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..
A key point here – only ERA qualifiers, with 162 or more innings pitched, were considered. This boxed out the likes of the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi and Orioles’ Trevor Rogers. The Blue Jays’ Kevin Gausman (10.5 “Tru” Pitching Runs Above Average), did qualify, but narrowly missed the Top Ten. So did Framber Valdez, who along with Gausman were in the Top Ten in last month’s update. Let’s get right to it.
HONORABLE MENTIONS
The first two mentions named here might surprise you, as their batted ball-based metrics were much better than their more traditional ones. Only four AL ERA qualifiers had ERA- and FIP- marks over 100, but two of them, the Rays’ Shane Baz (11.3 TPRAA) and Guardians’ Tanner Bibee (11.6 TPRAA) defied the odds and made this list. Baz (118 ERA-, 103 FIP-) was very unlucky across all batted ball types, especially the all-important fly ball category (144 Unadjusted vs. 105 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). Bibee (105 ERA-, 105 FIP-) was even more unlucky in the air (140 Unadjusted vs. 97 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score). Now on to the more expected group of core candidates. Ranger righty Jacob deGrom (18.0 TPRAA) proved that he could stay healthy and again qualify for the ERA title. He was a bit fortunate on grounders (46 Unadjusted vs. 97 Adjusted Ground Ball Contact Score), but overall his 77 “Tru”- fit in snugly between his 74 ERA- and 86 FIP-. He was tied for 5th in our last monthly update.
Yankee lefty Carlos Rodon (18.6 TPRAA) also ranked 7th in the last monthly update. Once a pure swing-and-miss type with little contact management aptitude, Rodon has greatly improved his ability in that area. His 87 Adjusted Contact Score wasn’t far off the pace in the AL Contact Manager of the Year race. His 83 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is better than any other pitcher covered today. Twins’ righty Joe Ryan (20.2 TPRAA) faded a bit down the stretch, dropping from 3rd in the last monthly update. His 74 “Tru”- was markedly better than his more traditional metrics (83 ERA-, 89 FIP-). Ryan was extremely unlucky on the ground this season (140 Unadjusted vs. 104 Adjusted Ground Ball Contact Score).
THE TOP FIVE STARTERS
#5 – RHP Bryan Woo (Mariners) – 22.1 TPRAA, 74 “Tru”-, 77 ERA-, 86 FIP-
Woo drops from 4th place in the last monthly update. Woo allowed the most authoritative fly ball contact (107 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score), but compensated by holding hitters to the fourth lowest average line drive exit speed (92.6 mph) among this group. Only the #1 pitcher below posted a lower walk rate than Woo. The righty was a savior for his club this season, as their vaunted starting rotation took some injury hits, with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller all missing significant time.
#4 – LHP Max Fried (Yankees) – 22.2 TPRAA, 75 “Tru”-, 71 ERA-, 72 FIP-
Fried jumps up from 7th in the last monthly update, just nosing out Woo for this spot. Fried is the 2025 AL Contact Manager of the Year, with an 83 Adjusted Contact Score. With Valdez missing the Top Ten, Fried’s average launch angle allowed of 6.7 degrees is the lowest among this group. On top of all those ground balls, Fried was also able to limit fly ball (85 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and line drive (96 Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score) authority to better than league average levels.
#3 – RHP Hunter Brown (Astros) – 22.7 TPRAA, 73 “Tru”-, 60 ERA-, 75 FIP-
Hunter Brown is blameless for his club’s late season collapse – he was exceptional from start to finish. Only the #1 pitcher below bettered Brown’s 85.9 mph average exit velocity allowed, and he did so only fractionally. Brown’s average fly ball (88.4 mph) exit speed allowed was the best among this group, his average line drive (91.3 mph) exit speed allowed was second best. He too wasn’t far off the pace in the AL Contact Manager of the Year race with an 88 Adjusted Contact Score.
#2 – LHP Garrett Crochet (Red Sox) – 31.7 TPRAA, 66 “Tru”-, 61 ERA-, 68 FIP-
While it was a photo finish for the #3-5 spots, two pitchers stand alone at the top of the race. Crochet had a brilliant campaign, pacing the league in both innings (205 1/3) and strikeouts (255). With his injury history, his durability in particular was quite eye-opening. As overpowering as he was, his contact management performance also deserves a mention. His 93 Adjusted Contact Score was downright solid, made possible in large part by a stellar 88 Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score and an AL-best 90.1 mph average liner exit speed allowed.
#1 – LHP Tarik Skubal (Tigers) – 37.3 TPRAA, 58 “Tru”-, 54 ERA-, 58 FIP-
Skubal was the best pitcher in the major leagues this season. He performed all of the basic tasks of an MLB starter at an extremely high level – missing bats (241 Ks, 2nd in the AL), minimizing walks (only 33, lowest of anyone mentioned today) and managing contact (86 Adjusted Contact Score). And he did it all over impressive innings bulk (195 1/3 IP, tied for 2nd in the AL). Early in his MLB career, Skubal was a pure bat-misser who gave little attention to contact management, like Rodon. Now, he’s darned good at it – his 85.8 mph overall average exit speed allowed and 80.3 mph average grounder exit speed allowed were both the lowest of anyone mentioned today.
Fangraphs WAR has Skubal (6.6 fWAR), Crochet (5.8), Fried (4.8) and Brown (4.6) in that order. Tomorrow, we’ll look at the NL Cy Young field.