Three Ways Space Force Must Lead US National Security

In March, two Russian Su-27 fighters sprayed jet fuel on an unarmed American Predator drone before taking it down. This isn’t the first time in recent years that our adversaries have flouted international law with unfounded assertions of national sovereignty over international airspace. Early in the Trump administration, Iran shot down one of our Global Hawks over international water, and today China routinely taunts our surveillance pilots over international water, violating our airspace and collecting valuable intelligence over sensitive military bases. Even last week, we learned of more Russian provocations, contradicting agreements in place to keep a tenuous peace in Syria. Headlines have always come of such provocations, but very little could actually be done about it without risking escalation. That is, until now.

Enter the new generation of satellites, built from commercial hardware and software and launched on dramatically lower cost rockets. These smallsats are already being sourced and launched by the Space Force to conduct missile warning and communication operations, but they could and should also perform hundreds of UAV and ISR aircraft missions, too. There are three main imperatives to begin the transition from traditional aircraft to smallsats – and thanks to the explosive growth of the commercial space sector, there is absolutely no reason to wait.

First and most obvious are the fiscal and environmental cost savings. As LEO satellites costing less than $10M start to replace tired aircraft that are burdening the taxpayer with depot refurbishment and repair costs, budget savings will return almost immediately. Surveillance UAV missions, often costing 5-10x as much as their satellite equivalents, could easily move to LEO. Drastic reductions in logistical demands of the pilot training and sustaining ecosystem would be mitigated by autonomous satellites, run by simple software programs on commercial computers. The elimination of aircrew and years of training could help alleviate USAF recruiting and retention issues, and save on the order of millions of dollars per year. While the traditional aircraft industry continues to experience a cycle of spiraling costs with no end in sight, smallsats are the opposite. Using smallsats for UAV and ISR aircraft missions, coupled with SDA’s existing transport layer, puts them into the virtuous cycle of commercial tech’s increasing performance at decreasing cost over time.

The transition to LEO also comes with a dramatic reduction in the Air Force’s use of fossil fuel, trading jet fuel burning aircraft dumping tons of carbon into the atmosphere for solar powered satellites. Leading by example to counter climate change, we can dramatically shrink the DoD’s carbon footprint by tossing as many of these greenhouse gas machines into the ashbin of history as we can. Incorporating sustainable aviation fuel is a great step, but it’s finally time to take this giant leap to space by making it the top priority in the Air Force’s Climate Action Plan. Further, by reducing our military’s dependence on oil, we rely less on logistic supply lines into dangerous or denied areas for sustained operations worldwide and enable unencumbered diplomatic decisions as a result.

Second, safely performing these air missions from orbit removes the unnecessary diplomatic and physical danger associated with downed aircrew and, more broadly, limits risk to the Air Force’s most valuable resource, its people. In 1950 for example, President Eisenhower initiated the successful CORONA spy satellite program in response to the Russian shootdown of USAF pilot Major Francis Gary Powers, the descendants of which continue today to be launched and operated by the NRO. Rather than continuing to risk aircrews conducting surveillance in international airspace, off the shelf satellites are available now that can outperform most manned and unmanned surveillance aircraft. The newest military service identifies with being the first digital service, drawing from a new generation far more network- and software-savvy than before. The Space Force will lead in us in 21^st century warfare with that identity, not by number of soldiers or sailors.

Third, and perhaps the most important is that the industrial scale and inherent precision of smallsats offer operational advantages to combatant commands that aircraft simply cannot deliver. Today, satellites are computers on orbit with analog devices and radios that are manufactured in just a few months and launched in days, compared to aircraft programs that often take a decade to build and get to an initial operating condition (IOC). And much like their computer cousins such as Dell, HP, or Apple, many commercial space companies around the country have the capacity to manufacture hundreds of satellites per year, some even on a path towards thousands.

The next generation satellite constellations employ low-cost precision laser communication, offering 10-100X the bandwidth and are nearly impossible to jam or disrupt. The precise satellite orbits, combined with rapid advances in AI algorithms running on commercial processors, enable advanced networking for the desired all-domain effect who’s fourth attempt down the path with aircraft has been “rocky.” These algorithms enable autonomous constellation operations, optimization, and continuous, automated health and orbit monitoring – very little of which will ever be possible for aircraft, unmanned or otherwise. AI autonomy also allows for mesh network resilience in a degraded communication environment, because the inherently predictable positioning of network nodes allow for intelligent rerouting of data.

The world is getting more fractured and autocratic, but the United States must remain watchful so it can continue to lead free nations to action during uncertain times. Many missions performed by manned and unmanned aircraft can be done more rapidly by leveraging the commercial space sector in a lower cost, safer, and more scalable way, thanks to the innovations of the last decade. We cannot afford to wait any longer, and providence in the form of exquisitely capable, very inexpensive commercial satellites is our saving grace.

When we make this transition, Russia, China, or any other law-breaking country who wishes to bully our defenseless UAVs and ISR aircraft in international airspace will no longer be able to. Instead, our surveillance will be safely conducted hundreds of miles above the earth, silently gathering intelligence and autonomously communicating directly with command centers, ships, strike aircraft and soldiers in the fight. It’s time for the next great leap forward – to reduce costs to our budget and environment, prevent needless aggravation, and more effectively protect America’s most precious resource – its people.