Three Bets Worth Making On The Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers will begin their 2023 season Sunday when they travel to Chicago for a 3:25 p.m. contest.

It’s been a wild offseason in the NFL’s smallest city.

Future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers was traded to the New York Jets. The Packers are the NFL’s youngest team, with 26 of the 53 players either in their rookie season or second-year. And for the time being, Green Bay has more questions than answers.

The Packers are coming off an 8-9 season and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2018. With so much youth and a bevy of changes, Green Bay is one of the NFL’s mystery teams this season.

But here are three wagers worth exploring:

Aaron Jones Total TDs: 7.5.

Jones has 56 total touchdowns in the last five seasons, an average of 11.2 TDs per year. Jones has also exceeded 7.5 touchdowns in four of the last five years.

Jones did fall short of that 7.5 number last year with seven total touchdowns. But Jones set career-highs for rushing yards (1,121) and receptions (59). The fact his touchdown total slipped seems more coincidental than anything.

With Rodgers gone, the Packers are almost certain to run the ball more than they have in past seasons. And both Jones and A.J. Dillon figure to get more looks near the goal line than they did with Rodgers, who loved beefing up his personal stats.

Jones has also developed into one of the NFL’s better pass-catching backs and has 11 receiving TDs in the last two years.

Jones, 28, is still in his prime. Look for his touchdown total to push double digits.

Prediction: Over

Christian Watson Receptions: 64.5

Watson is a rare talent.

He’s 6-foot-4, 208-pounds and runs a blazing 4.32-second 40-yard dash. He’s also smart as a whip, as evidenced by his score of 38 on the 50-question Wonderlic test.

What he hasn’t been able to do is stay healthy.

Watson had knee surgery shortly after being drafted in 2022, then missed three games last year due to a hamstring injury and a concussion. His status for Green Bay’s Week 1 game at Chicago is in doubt due to a hamstring injury.

Watson had 41 receptions as a rookie. So even if could stay on the field all season, he’d have to take a 58.5% jump to reach 65 catches and hit the over.

That’s a lot to ask for a player who’s battled injuries since arriving in Green Bay and who’s playing with a first-year starter at quarterback.

Prediction: Under

A.J. Dillon Rushing Yards: 725.5

Dillon has averaged 786.5 rushing yards the last two years — and one of those seasons had 16 games. Now, with Rodgers gone, the Packers are expected to feature the ground game more than past years.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee and with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Green Bay and strived for a 50-50 run/pass split.

As the non-play calling offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2017, LaFleur oversaw an attack that ran the ball 46.7% of the time (454 of 972). As the play-calling offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2018, LaFleur’s Titans ran the ball a whopping 51.0% of the time (454 of 891).

During LaFleur’s first four seasons in Green Bay, the Packers have run the ball just 43.6% of the time. That number will almost certainly go up, and Dillon should be a major beneficiary.

Dillon is also in a contract year and anxious to prove his worth to the rest of the league. Don’t be shocked in Dillon exceeds this projection comfortably.

Prediction: Over