‘Thor 4’ Soars With Marvelous $302 Million Worldwide Debut

Thor 4 brought the Love and Thunder this weekend, debuting with a solid $143 million domestic debut. While below some of the more optimistic $150-$170 million pre-release projections, it’s close to the $146 million launch of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 in the summer of 2017. James Gunn’s Guardians 2 arrived with arguably more single-franchise goodwill than any previous MCU sequel. The film was the biggest no-Tony Stark MCU franchise starter ($333 million domestic and $773 million worldwide) until Black Panther in early 2018. Yet it still “failed” to open above $150 million or gross over $1 billion globally. Four years later, Ant-Man and the Wasp earned “just” $216 million domestic and $620 million worldwide despite arriving on the heels of both Black Panther and Avengers: Infinity War. Thor 4 opening a little better than Thor 3 ($123 million) is fine.

Taiki Waititi and Jennifer Kaytin Robinson’s MCU sequel captured the year’s third-biggest Fri-Sun opening weekend behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($187 million) and Jurassic World Dominion ($145 million). The summer kick-off MCU movies (Avengers: Age of Ultron, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Avengers: Infinity War) open much bigger due to placement and status as MCU event films/mythology episodes. The early-July offerings (Ant-Man, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Ant-Man and the Wasp) are generally considered “monster of the week episodes.” They usually have longer post-debut legs, even with often huge second-weekend drops. Credit their less “gotta see it immediately” nature and their tendency to be among the last four-quadrant live-action tentpoles of the summer. Unless Bullet Train is “wholesome fun for the whole family,” Thor 4 will be the last *big* family-friendly newbie until Black Adam on October 21.

However, there are some possible signs of peril for the God of Thunder. The film pulled comparatively lousy reviews (69% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes is above only Thor: The Dark World, The Incredible Hulk and Eternals) and less overwhelmingly positive buzz (including a B+ from Cinemascore, joining Doctor Strange 2, Thor and Eternals as the only MCU films to dip below an A-). And, yes, the 17% jump compared to Thor: Ragnarok’s opening weekend is the smallest bump yet for a non-Avengers MCU sequel compared to its respective predecessor. This was the first MCU franchise to get a “part four,” and even with the Ragnarök team returning (director Taika Waititi, Tessa Thompson, etc.), it didn’t have the “gotta see it right now” impact of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. That’s relative, as most long-running franchises would be okay with mixed-positive reviews and only opening 17% higher than their predecessors.

Marvel has set itself up as the master of the breakout sequel, so a 15%-30% jump (think Thor: The Dark World and Iron Man 2) now feels disappointing. The ridiculous overperformances of Black Panther ($700 million off a $242 million Fri-Mon debut in 2018) and Captain Marvel ($427 million off a $155 million opening weekend in 2019) did not and do not represent the new normal for non-Avengers (and non-Spider-Man) MCU solo flicks. Even Doctor Strange 2 was sold as a glorified sequel to Avengers: Endgame and the first mythology episode since 2019 with implicitly promised multiverse cameos and status-quo-shattering events. That’s partially why The Multiverse of Madness ($410 million/$187 million) and Civil War ($409 million/$179 million) were frontloaded. Some audiences raced to theaters expecting an Avengers-level event; the rest of the run was for audiences who were okay with a Doctor Strange sequel or Captain America 3.

Thor: Love and Thunder was obviously “just a Thor sequel.” In terms of “What’s new?” variables, Natalie Portman’s Jane Foster returning to the MCU as “Mighty Thor” arguably counts as a new factor, while Christian Bale playing Gorr the God Butcher and Russell Crowe cameoing as Zeus surely applies. Still, this is the fourth solo Thor flick and eighth major MCU appearance for Chris Hemsworth’s title hero since 2011. That Thor: Ragnarök was hailed as a Batman Forever-like franchise savior after Thor: The Dark World while (relatively speaking) Love & Thunder is being compared to Batman & Robin won’t help the post-release narrative. That only matters if the general audiences agree with the critics and the perpetually online. Remember, it wasn’t Ain’t It Cool News that killed Batman & Robin 25 years ago; it was the paying audience (a $43 million opening and then a 64% second-weekend drop).

Expecting a significant second-weekend drop (Homecoming and Ant-Man 2 both fell over 60% in weekend two but bounced back), a run like Spider-Man: Homecoming still gets Thor 4 over $405 million, or near Doctor Strange 2. Conversely, a run like Avengers: Age of Ultron, Iron Man 2, Iron Man 3 or Suicide Squad (a DC flick that opened with $133 million in August, fell 67% in weekend two but rebounded as the last biggie of summer 2016) would give Thor 4 a $335 million-$350 million finish, on par with or above the $315-$336 million likes of Thor: Ragnarök, Iron Man, Deadpool 2, Guardians of the Galaxy, Aquaman, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Joker and Spider-Man 3. If audiences don’t like it, or the “will be on Disney+ in 45 days” variable becomes a deal-breaker, then legs like Doctor Strange 2, Captain America 3 and Black Widow give it a domestic finish of $312-$327 million.

Would that be lower than hoped? Perhaps, as Marvel likely wanted a Thor 4 precisely because it seemed like a safe solo outing for an established “Infinity Saga” hero whose previous film was popular even among those not 104% infatuated with the MCU. But that’s a conversation only if the movie dive-bombs next weekend *and* does not recover after day ten. We’re still talking about the fourth film in an ongoing franchise that opened higher than the third film. That doesn’t happen very often, even Fast & Furious was sold as the first “true” sequel to The Fast and the Furious, outside of decades-later relaunches like Live Free or Die Hard or Jurassic World. If John Wick: Chapter 4 opens with 17% more than John Wick: Chapter 3‘s $56 million opening, Lionsgate will be thrilled with that $65 million debut.

The film has earned $302 million worldwide thus far, 19% ahead of Thor: Ragnarök in respective overseas markets. It earned 36% of its grosses from various PLF theaters (IMAX, Dolby, 3-D, D-Box, etc.). It has opened worldwide except for France next weekend, save for Russia and China. Thor: Ragnarök earned $854 million worldwide in late 2017. That total included $112 million in China and $23 million from Russia. Take those grosses out, and you have around $715 million worldwide. If Thor 4 ends up in that ballpark, that’s good enough. Again, that Black Panther earned $1.3 billion and Spider-Man: No Way Home made $1.91 billion does not mean that $1 billion is the bar for success. The Batman is a massive hit at $770 million, as was No Time to Die with $774 million. I won’t mourn Thor: Love and Thunder that “only” passes F9’s $721 million cume.