This Is A Bearish Week For Bond Markets

The third week of this month has been very bearish in the fixed income market. This week is similar to the same weeks in March, June, and September which also have bearish patches. Notes have fallen 82% of the time from the 19^th to the 26^th as can be seen in the daily histogram below. The 22^nd has been up only 22% of the time, one of the weakest days of the month. Note that the breadth line is still exceptionally overbought, more so than at any other time in 2022. Sell long positions and go short. The US 10-year notes are likely to fall to 111-112 by month’s end.