This indicator suggests a recession is likely to hit within months

A key economic indicator is flashing a warning signal that has historically preceded every major recession in the United States over the past five decades.

Specifically, the Heavy Truck Index, which tracks the 10-month moving average of heavy truck sales, is showing early signs of a downturn following a recent peak.

On this point, Guilherme Tavares, CEO of i3 Invest, highlighted that despite the apparent strength of the economy, this metric is now signaling a need for caution, he said in a post on X on July 7.

According to Tavares, there is now a high likelihood that the U.S. will enter a recession in the coming months if this trend persists.

“Despite an economy driven by massive stimulus and debt, the great Heavy Truck Index is signaling caution ahead. According to it, there is a high probability we’ll enter a recession in the coming months,” he said. 

Historically, declines in the index have foreshadowed major downturns, including the oil shock recession in the 1970s, the Dot-com bubble in 2000, the subprime crisis in 2008, and the COVID-19 slump in 2020, each time providing an early warning of a slowdown.

Tavares noted that despite today’s unique economic dynamics, heavy truck sales remain a reliable indicator of business investment and freight demand. A downturn in the index typically signals weakening confidence and preparations for slower activity.

Declining recession odds 

Meanwhile, it’s worth noting that recession warnings initially accelerated following market turmoil triggered by early April retaliatory tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. 

However, those fears cooled after the U.S. reached agreements with major trading partners such as China, prompting Wall Street to lower the odds of a downturn in 2025.

That said, President Trump has recently renewed the threat of retaliatory tariffs, a move that could once again spook markets.

At the same time, the odds of a recession on cryptocurrency betting markets, such as Polymarket, have plummeted in 2025 to just 22%.

Notably, at the height of economic uncertainty during the tariff standoff, those odds had peaked at an all-time high of over 65%.

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