Topline
Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin will be the states to watch in next year’s presidential election, according to a first look at electoral college rankings from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics Thursday, which also found Democrats have a slight edge heading into a largely undecided election.
People watch a big screen displaying the live election results in Florida at Black Lives Matter … [+]
Key Facts
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is predicting another tight race—the sixth in the last seven elections—with 260 electoral votes leaning Democratic and 235 leaning Republican at this point.
Neither party has the 270 votes it needs to win at this point, the report said, identifying only43 electoral votes in four swing states as true “toss ups.”
The report said Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin are toss-ups because they were the closest states in 2020, with President Joe Biden winning all three by less than one percentage point—even though Republican candidates have historically won Georgia and Arizona.
Nevada has gone for Democrats over the last several elections, but the party’s margin has shrunk as Clark County—home to Las Vegas and most of the state’s population—“is getting more competitive as opposed to getting more Democratic,” UVA noted.
Despite often being considered swing states, Sabato’s said Pennsylvania’s electoral votes are likely to go Democratic this year and North Carolina’s will probably commit to the Republican candidate.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, run by political analyst and UVA professor Larry Sabato, analyzes and predicts election outcomes using electoral history, polling, candidate quality, modeling and reporting; Thursday’s report is based on the assumption Joe Biden and Donald Trump will be the two top candidates.
Big Number
191. That’s how many “safe” electoral votes the Democrats start with, Sabato’s said, compared to Republicans’ 122.
Key Background
With primaries a year away, candidates are continuing to declare their intentions for the 2024 race. Biden is the likely Democratic candidate, drawing only fringe challengers Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. The Republican contest is much more up in the air—former President Donald Trump faces legal problems and several true challengers, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former vice president Mike Pence and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, among others. In recent months, Trump’s polling lead in the GOP primary has climbed as he’s ramped up attacks on DeSantis, taking jabs at his [absence of] personality and casting him as “disloyal.”
Tangent
Sabato, like most political anylsists, has assumed a Biden-Trump rematch for 2024, but one key Republican wavered on whether Trump is the best candidate for the job. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) expressed uncertainty about former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign on Tuesday, telling CNBC he’s unsure Trump is the “strongest” candidate to take on Biden. Trump’s allies are outraged by the comments, CNN reported, citing one who said: “People are not happy. What was he thinking?” McCarthy later backtracked, calling Trump “Biden’s strongest political opponent.”
Further Reading
Electoral College Ratings: Expect Another Highly Competitive Election (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)
GOP Sen. Rick Scott Weighs Presidential Run, Report Says: Here’s The Full 2024 Primary List (Forbes)
McCarthy Says He’s Unsure Trump Is The Best Candidate To Take On Biden—Angering Trump Allies (Forbes)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2023/06/29/these-4-states-are-toss-ups-in-a-tight-2024-race-early-predictions-say/