There Is No NBA MVP Conspiracy Against Sixers’ Joel Embiid

For the past few seasons, the NBA’s Most Valuable Player race has been a sore subject for Philadelphia 76ers fans.

Sixers center Joel Embiid has finished as the MVP runner-up behind Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic in each of the past two seasons. Halfway through the 2022-23 campaign, Embiid appears likely to fall short of the league’s highest individual honor once again.

Jokic is the favorite to win this year’s award (-130), according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Luka Doncic (+450), Embiid (+800), Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (+850) and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (+1500) round out the top five, and Memphis Grizzlies point guard Ja Morant (+3000) is the only other player within striking distance of them.

While it may be tempting to view Embiid’s current standing in the MVP race as a grand conspiracy against the Sixers—perhaps as a punishment for the Process years?—it’s more of a testament to the absurd amount of top-end talent in the NBA today.

Last season, Embiid became the first center to lead the league in scoring since Shaquille O’Neal. He averaged a career-high 30.6 points on 49.9 percent shooting to go with 11.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. This year, he’s averaging a league-leading 33.4 points on 53.2 percent shooting—significant upgrades in both marks—along with 9.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.1 steals. He’s also setting a new career high in true shooting percentage (.641) and effective field-goal percentage (.558).

All of that should have Embiid squarely in the mix for this year’s MVP award, and in a typical year, it would. But much like every NBA team constructed in the mid-to-late 2010s, he’s running into a roadblock of historic talent in their primes.

Doncic is right behind Embiid with a career-high 33.0 points per game on 49.7 percent shooting. He’s also averaging 8.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists, 2.7 made three-pointers and 1.5 steals per game. In doing so, he’s almost single-handedly dragging his undermanned Dallas Mavericks squad into the race for a top-four seed in the Western Conference.

Antetokounmpo isn’t far behind Doncic and Embiid with a career-high 31.3 points per game to go with 12.0 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 0.9 blocks and 0.8 steals. His efficiency is down across the board—he’s shooting 52.7 percent overall, only 25.7 percent from three-point range and 64.5 percent from the free-throw line—but he has the Bucks fighting for a top-two seed despite getting only 10 games out of Khris Middleton thus far.

Like Doncic, Embiid and Antetokounmpo, Tatum is also setting a new career high in scoring (31.1 points per game). He’s averaging 8.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 3.3 three-pointers as well, and his Celtics have a league-best 35-15 record. “Best player on the best team” always tends to carry weight in MVP debates, especially when it’s one of the league’s up-and-coming superstars.

It might be tough for any of Embiid, Doncic, Antetokounmpo and Tatum to topple Jokic from his throne. The two-time reigning MVP is averaging 25.1 points on a career-high 62.9 percent shooting to go with 11.0 rebounds and a career-high 9.9 assists per game. Jokic’s Nuggets have the best record in the Western Conference at 34-15, and he once again leads the league in nearly every major advanced metric.

Player efficiency rating is by no means a perfect metric, but it can at least underscore the historic nature of this year’s MVP race. Prior to this season, there were only 30 individual seasons in NBA history in which a player had a PER north of 30. Halfway through the 2022-23 season, Jokic (32.3) and Embiid (30.6) are both above that mark, and Doncic (29.9) isn’t far off.

To overtake Jokic, Doncic, Tatum and Antetokounmpo in the MVP race, Embiid will likely need a few things to fall into place. The Sixers might need to finish in the top two of the East, particularly if the Celtics and Nuggets finish as the No. 1 seeds in their respective conferences. Another scoring title certainly wouldn’t hurt, particularly if he outduels Doncic with an average in the mid-30s. And he can’t miss many more games, as he’s already around 400 minutes behind Doncic and more than 500 behind Tatum.

Embiid very well could win another scoring title, as James Harden is spoonfeeding him more easy looks around the basket than he’s ever had before. The Sixers are currently tied with the Bucks for the No. 2 seed in the East, so staying in the top two is feasible, too. The minutes deficit might be too much for him to overcome, though.

The Sixers are all-in on winning a championship this season, which will require Embiid to stay healthy heading into the playoffs. They should be looking to limit his minutes and games played throughout the regular season to keep as much tread on his tires as possible, even if it comes at the expense of his chances at winning MVP.

So, the next time ESPN’s Tim Bontemps releases an MVP straw poll that doesn’t have Embiid in first place, don’t complain about a grand conspiracy from media voters or the league office. Recognize it as a testament to the amount of high-end talent in the NBA today.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.