There Is No Clear Winner Of The James Harden-Ben Simmons Trade … Yet

When the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets pulled off a blockbuster deal involving James Harden and Ben Simmons at the February trade deadline, Sixers team president Daryl Morey said it was a “win-win trade” that should have made the rest of the Eastern Conference “nervous.”

“You couldn’t design a better reason for a trade than what just happened,” he told Colin Cowherd. “Two players who wanted to be in a new situation, who are extremely good players, who will play very well in the other place but not this place. If this isn’t the perfectly designed trade, where both us and Brooklyn can get better, and the rest of the East I think is nervous right now.”

Three months later, the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat are facing off in the Eastern Conference Finals. Meanwhile, the Sixers and Nets are sifting through the rubble of lost seasons.

Simmons suffered a back injury that eventually required surgery during his ramp-up process and never suited up for the Nets this season. In his absence, the Celtics swept them in the first round of the playoffs.

Harden did play for the Sixers, but his no-shows in Games 5 and 6 of their Eastern Conference Semifinals loss to the Heat raised questions about his long-term future in Philadelphia.

“Since we got him, everybody expected the Houston James Harden,” Sixers center Joel Embiid told reporters after the closeout Game 6 loss. “But that’s not who he is anymore. He’s more of a playmaker.”

At this point, both teams may be having some buyer’s remorse. However, the jury still remains out on the long-term impact that Harden and Simmons will have on their new teams and whether either team will wind up a clear winner of that megatrade.

For Harden, the questions are both physical and financial.

A lingering hamstring injury appeared to sap him of the burst that once made him one of the league’s most unstoppable scorers, as his blow-by rate plummeted over the past two seasons, according to ESPN’s Tim Bontemps. Although he turned back the clock with a vintage performance in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, scoring 16 of his 31 points in a virtuoso fourth quarter to stave off the Heat, he combined for 25 points on 9-of-22 shooting and eight turnovers in the Sixers’ rudderless losses in Games 5 and 6.

Harden can become an unrestricted free agent this summer by declining his $47.4 million player option, although it’s difficult to imagine any team being willing to meet that price on the open market. He could instead pick up the option and be under contract for one more season before reaching free agency in 2023, when more teams may have salary-cap space.

After the Game 6 loss, Harden said he planned to be back in Philadelphia next season one way or another. When asked whether he’d consider re-signing for less than the five-year, $270 million max deal he’s eligible to receive this offseason, he replied, “Whatever it takes to help this team continue to grow and put us up there with the best of them.”

If Harden is true to his word, the Sixers should try to talk him into opting out and re-signing for less than his full max. Even if his new deal starts at $40-42 million instead of $46-47 million, they’d have enough wiggle room under the projected $155.7 million luxury-tax apron to have access to both the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception and $4.1 million bi-annual exception. If he picks up the option, they’d be limited to the $6.4 million taxpayer MLE and veteran minimum contracts as their only ways to add to their supporting cast in free agency.

Unless Harden returns to his superstar form next year, this version of him isn’t worth a full five-year, $270 million max. If the Sixers sign him to a deal anywhere near that, it might immediately become one of the NBA’s biggest albatross contracts. But if they re-sign him for significantly less, they might have enough flexibility to build a championship-caliber supporting cast around him and Embiid.

The Nets, meanwhile, can only wonder what Simmons will look like alongside their superstars next season. A herniated disk in his back prevented him from ever making his debut in Brooklyn.

Although Simmons participated in practices as he ramped up for his potential return in Game 4 of their series against the Celtics, he wasn’t able to scrimmage with their starters, according to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. He eventually underwent back surgery in early May and will be recovering for the next 3-4 months, per Wojnarowski.

His inability to suit up in the closeout Game 4 loss “triggered frustration and disheartenment throughout the organization,” according to Shams Charania of The Athletic. The next day, Simmons and agent Rich Paul met with franchise officials and “told those in the room that a mental block exists for him, dating in part to last summer’s postseason, which is creating stress that could serve as a trigger point for his back issues,” per Charania.

Simmons did tell the Nets that he “does want to play basketball and play for the Nets as he works on solutions in regard to his well-being,” per Charania. General manager Sean Marks has been publicly supportive of Simmons throughout the process, telling reporters during his end-of-season press conference that the Nets would do “everything we possibly can to get him around our group.”

“He is a big, big part of this,” Marks added. “He fits a lot of holes, plugs a lot of holes that we think we potentially have. And with him in there, it’s a different dynamic out there.”

Simmons’ refusal to attempt jump shots wound up being his downfall in Philadelphia, but the Nets might be better equipped to hide him in the half court. They have two elite perimeter scorers in Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving (assuming the latter returns), along with an array of sharpshooters such as Joe Harris, Seth Curry and Patty Mills. If they park Simmons in the dunker’s spot, he won’t clog the paint like he did for Embiid on the Sixers.

Meanwhile, Simmons’ strengths could make him a picture-perfect fit next to Durant and Irving on both sides of the floor. The 2020-21 Defensive Player of the Year runner-up is one of the league’s most versatile defenders, which could give head coach Steve Nash some flexibility with his lineup combinations. He’s also a dynamic playmaker in transition who could help alleviate some of the playmaking load from Durant and Irving.

Granted, this is all theoretical until Simmons returns to the court. If he’s unable to move past the mental issues that have plagued him dating back to his time in Philadelphia, he may never provide the Nets with the value they expect out of him. But if the change in scenery helps him overcome that, he could feasibly get right back into All-Star consideration next season.

Meanwhile, even if Harden isn’t the 30-plus-points-per-game scorer that he was during his prime in Houston, he still gives the Sixers a much-needed perimeter shot-creator. In the games that he played during the regular season, the Sixers averaged a scorching 123.1 points per 100 possessions with him on the court compared to only 111.8 per 100 with him on the bench. During the playoffs, they scored 114.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor compared to 108.3 with him on the bench.

Neither team got the immediate return they desired from the Simmons-Harden blockbuster, as both got knocked out before the conference finals. However, it’s far too early to render final judgment on the deal, as both teams could be right back in the title mix if they nail their critical offseason decisions.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.