The “What Ifs” That Changed The Fate Of Game 7 Of The World Series

Game 7 of the World Series had more “what if” moments than you could shake a broken bat at. An inch or two in multiple directions, and the Blue Jays – not the Dodgers – hoist the Commissioner’s Trophy. (Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

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Every baseball game – heck, every sporting event – has a “what if” moment (or two) that potentially changes the fates of the teams involved. Throughout history we can point to so many (what if Buckner fields the slow roller; what if Grady Little removes Pedro Martinez; what if Nelson Cruz catches the ball; etc.).

But when two teams play 73 innings of baseball over seven games, and one team wins the finale by the score of 5-4 in an eleven-inning epic, such a contest is ripe for a full “what if” analysis. When Mookie Betts stepped on second base and threw across the diamond to Freddie Freeman to complete the first double play to end a World Series since 1947, baseball fans the world over – but most especially in Canada – were left wondering, “what if?”

The Toronto Blue Jays were looking for their first championship since 1993. They had many chances, even going back to Game 6 (which factors into a Game 7 “what if”), to do just that. In the hazy glory of victory, the Los Angeles Dodgers may not spend too much time thinking about the “what ifs” on their side that could have made their run to back-to-back World Series titles a bit easier. But that doesn’t mean we can’t. So here goes:

Second Inning

What if:

Bo Bichette didn’t have an injured knee and could have easily moved to third on Addison Barger’s single to right field? Because of that injury, he could not score on Ernie Clement’s own single to right. When Shohei Ohtani struck out Andrés Giménez, the game remained scoreless after two.

Third Inning

What if:

Daulton Varsho doesn’t make a diving catch on Teoscar Hernández’s bases loaded low liner to center? One run came in on the play, but if the ball gets by Gold Glover, the game is most likely tied with the lead run standing on second base.

Sixth Inning

What if:

The Blue Jays were able to bring Giménez in from second base with no outs after his run-scoring double? That would have made the score 5-2. It was the Dodgers lack of situational hitting that almost felled them time and again this season, and in Game 7, it was Toronto who – shockingly – couldn’t do the small things. With Giménez on second, George Springer struck out, Nathan Lukes flied out, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. grounded out. That run (or lack thereof) would prove to be huge.

Seventh Inning

What if:

Guerrero doesn’t make a perfectly executed 3-6-3 double play on Freeman’s chopper? In that situation, the first baseman often steps on the bag and then throws to second for the tag play. Had he tried that with the speedy Ohtani, there is a real chance that Shohei is in scoring position for Betts with two outs in a 4-2 game.

Eighth Inning

What if:

Manager John Schneider trusts rookie Trey Yesavage to get the third out of the eighth inning, rather than bringing in his closer, Jeff Hoffman, to attempt the four-out save? Hoffman had come into a home game in the eighth inning one time during the regular season, which resulted in a blown save. In fairness, he did record a four-out save in Game 4 of the ALDS against the Yankees; pitched two innings to finish a 6-2 win over the Mariners in Game 6 of the ALCS; and threw two innings in the marathon 18-inning Game 3 of the World Series. But all of that work may have militated against stretching him in this particular game.

Giménez could have gotten the bunt down to move Clement to third base after he led off the eighth inning with a double? In what was then a 4-3 game, the Jays needed an insurance run (boy, did they need one).

Giménez hits the ball anywhere other than right at Max Muncy at third base, standing a mere 73 feet from home plate when the shortstop pulled back his bunt and tried to slap one past the drawn-in infield? If Giménez’s liner finds turf, at a minimum it would have been first and third with no outs and the top of the order coming up. Instead, he became the first out of the inning, followed by Springer and pinch-hitter Davis Schneider striking out, thus stranding Clement on second base (another “tack on” run lost).

Top Of Ninth Inning

What if:

Miguel Rojas doesn’t do what he hadn’t done since June 14^th: hit a home run off a right-handed pitcher. And to be clear, he hadn’t hit one off a non-position-player right-hander all season. But even before that, if Shane Bieber’s 2-2 slider was about an inch lower, it is strike three, Rojas is retired, and there are two outs in the ninth inning.

Ohtani gets just a little more of Bieber’s next pitch, a down and in slider? Ohtani was a tiny bit of launch angle from giving the Dodgers the lead. As it was, he hit the ball 107-mph and 329 feet, but it landed harmlessly in Myles Straw’s glove short of the warning track.

Bottom Of Ninth Inning

What if:

Guerrero pulls Snell’s 3-0 change up just a little bit? Snell was obviously pitching around the dangerous first baseman, throwing the first three pitches way outside the zone. He left his fourth pitch up and just a little bit away, and Guerrero smashed it to center. Based on the metrics, here are the potential outcomes via Statcast:

Rojas can’t find his footing on Varsho’s shot to second? As it was, Rojas was barely able to gather himself to make the throw to the plate to narrowly retire a sliding Isiah Kiner-Falefa.

Kiner-Falefa had even just a slightly bigger lead off third base (7.8 feet, which ranked 357/381 in the World Series, and was 3.8 feet shorter than Betts’ version an inning later); and/or just a slightly better secondary lead as the pitch was thrown (8.9 feet, which ranked 366/376 in the World Series); and/or ran through home plate rather than sliding (his 28.2 feet/second sprint speed was 61/689 in the World Series, so he shouldn’t have done anything to slow himself down)?

Will Smith is not able to get his cleat back on top of home plate before Kiner-Falefa got there? If baseball is a game of inches, this was a play of centimeters (fitting in Canada). Related to that, what if the call on the field had been “safe.” Would (a) there been enough evidence on video replay to overturn the call and (b) would the replay officials in Secaucus, New Jersey have had the stones to rip the championship from Toronto by overturning the call after the team had (ostensibly) celebrated their victory?

You don’t need to worry about Rojas stumbling or Kiner-Falefa sliding or Smith’s cleat touching if Varsho did what he does 63.2% of the time: hit the ball in the air? Over the course of the season, he only pulled a groundball 20.6% of the time, and yet he did just that in the biggest moment of the season, denying the Blue Jays the winning run.

Dave Roberts, after removing Blake Snell for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, didn’t replace Tommy Edman with Andy Pages in center field. True, he did this as Pages has a better arm than Edman, and the goal was to have a play at the plate on a fly ball with the bases loaded and only one out? But, when Clement did something he had done less than 25 times the entire season (in 665 plate appearances): hit a ball farther than 365 feet, it caught left fielder Kiké Hernández by surprise. Playing shallow as he had in the ninth inning of Game 6 to cut off a bloop hit, Hernández found himself racing to the wall with his back to infield, hoping/praying that he could channel his inner Willie Mays and save the World Series. Then, out of nowhere, Pages appeared on the scene to knock Hernández over and make the catch. Pages ran 121 feet, at 29.2 feet/second to get to the ball. Per Statcast, Pages has better reaction time, burst, jump on the batted ball, and sprint speed than Edman, not to mention twenty pounds on him. All of which made that (truck of Hernández and) catch possible.

Tenth Inning

What if:

Pages could do what he does 64.6% of the time: hit the ball in the air? Stop me if this sounds familiar, but over the course of the season, he only pulled a groundball 20.6% of the time, and yet he did just that in the biggest moment of the season, with the game tied and the bases loaded.

Seranthony Domínguez couldn’t find first base after receiving the flip from Guerrero on Kiké Hernández’s slow roller? Had Domínguez not stepped on the bag just ahead of the batter, the Dodgers take the lead in the tenth inning.

Eleventh Inning

What if:

Roberts keeps the lineup as-is, or shakes things up, but doesn’t move Smith into the #2 hole? If Betts is still hitting second, does he hit his first home run of the post-season – or even just his second extra-base hit since Game 3 of the NLCS – off Shane Bieber in the top of the eleventh inning to break the tie and eventually win the game and World Series?

After Guerrero leads off with a double and is sacrificed to third and Barger walks, Alejandro Kirk could do what he did 55.8% of the time during the regular season (hit the ball in the air), and not do what did only 20.1% of the time (hit a groundball up the middle)? If he could have, the game would have at least be tied.

Rather than breaking his bat and grounding into the series-ending double play, Kirk strikes out on Yamamoto’s 34^th pitch, thus leaving runners on the corners with two outs? Does Roberts leave his second-year ace on the hill? Does he go to Clayton Kershaw, who was warming in the bullpen? Or Roki Sasaki, who threw an inning the night before and gave up a hit and two walks? Anthony Banda, who hadn’t pitched since Game 5, but who had given up three runs on three hits in his last two innings pitched? Will Klein, hoping for yet another miracle? Jack Dreyer? Heaven forbid, Blake Treinen and his 6.75 ERA in this post-season? Alas, Kirk’s groundball made the debate moot.

As with so many moments in this classic game that ran eleven innings for more than four hours, baseball lovers and specifically Blue Jays fans, cannot help but ask, “what if?”