The Value Of Specialty 3-Point Shooters, And Why It Should Change

Players such as Duncan Robinson and Joe Harris are well compensated for one, key elite skill: Shooting the basketball. Both are historically great shooters, and the word “great” isn’t to be taken lightly here.

Yet, despite their shooting effectiveness, it’s fair to wonder if their one-dimensional games will have a lot of freedom in the playoffs where pace is decreased, defense turned up, and games are being analyzed down to the millisecond in-between games.

The lack of adaptability

With Harris out for the season, let’s focus on Robinson. It’s not an unreasonable thought to ponder if a team could mostly eliminate Robinson’s court value, by scheming against him.

If that materializes, it begs the question: What is his counter?

Robinson isn’t an on-ball creator, nor a creative playmaker. He isn’t a slasher, nor is he a cutter who will seek interior shots. His value, both on the court and contractually, is entirely hung up on his ability to shoot the ball from three-point range, of which he is assisted on almost 96% of his makes on the season.

That means Robinson isn’t creating his own looks, but is reliant upon others to get him the ball. Sure, he’ll move around aggressively off the ball, drawing away a defender, and constantly move to get open, which is a weapon in and of itself. But is it enough, and does it justify earning $90 million over five seasons?

The Heat also have Tyler Herro on the roster, a player with similar three-point volume and efficiency. Where Herro and Robinson separate is in Herro’s ability to play on-ball and create a wide variety of shots for himself by using a live dribble, while simultaneously functioning as a spot-up option as well. In fact, Herro is assisted on only 45.5% of all his field goals, and 70.3% on his long jumpers.

To put it outright rudely: Herro is Duncan Robinson, but an upgraded version of him.

To reiterate, this is not to suggest Robinson has no value. Such a preposition would be preposterous. Over the course of an 82-game regular season, when game-planning is significantly less detailed, using Robinson to space the floor for Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo will always prove fruitful. It’s when the season turns from regular to postseason that things can change. In fact, they already have.

Robinson, over the course of 25 career games in the playoffs, is hitting 39.3% of his three-pointers. That’s a fine mark to be sure, but it’s not at a level where his one elite skill is being properly applied. The Heat simply do not benefit enough from his production, in part because his game is predictable, thus making it guardable to an extent. For a team projected as a top 5 candidate to make the Finals, it’s fair wondering if Miami has optimized their cap sheet.

Shooting is no longer the premium it once was

One might argue the mere presence of Robinson, and players of similar ilk, unlock a team’s offense. This is undoubtedly true, as long as the players spacing the floor occasionally remind defenders of their effectiveness. And given that Robinson has hit three or more three-pointers per game over his past three seasons, it’s fair to say he serves a valuable role in that regard.

But, in terms of contract, paying one-dimensional shooters a significant portion of the available salary cap percentage might be worth re-evaluating, especially if the player in question also offers only a limited influence defensively.

Reading the tea leaves, and another pattern emerge: Young players are practicing their shooting more than ever before these days. The league is getting full of players fully capable of shooting the basketball from range. Players who can’t shoot no longer outnumber those who can, suggesting teams won’t have to look too hard to find perfectly suitable floor spacers. Even Miami found Max Strus, who’s been a more reliable shooter than Robinson this year.

Essentially, teams might soon reach the realization that they needn’t pay a premium for players who can only shoot, and do virtually nothing else. If they need a player who is limited to only that, they can find him, and rather easily.

All this is not to say Duncan Robinson is by any stretch a bad player, nor an unimportant one. What he offers, he offers at a level nearly unmatched. However, he is a specialty player earning near $100 million, which down the line could become the exception than the norm.