The Uncertainty Of Julius Randle’s Knicks Future

Julius Randle has been an enigma for the New York Knicks all season long. The 6’9 forward, who last year won the league’s Most Improved Player award, has had moments of brilliance and stretches of immense frustration.

That frustration doesn’t always come from him, however. It’s a nightly experience seeing the reactions from the fan base to Randle’s continuously inconsistent performances. Some seem eternally optimistic in his abilities and foresee him in a Knicks uniform for years to come, while others are ready to cut bait and move off of him in a trade.

Such a contrast is stark, but it might be fitting, symbolically, given the experience Randle has become, good and bad.

Rough stretch

Over his past 12 games, Randle is averaging 22.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game, which are numbers most would associate with an All-Star. That’s a nice all-around line, which in theory displays his capabilities as a multifaceted basketball player.

At least, that’s until the shooting percentages are attached. During that time, he’s hitting just 38.2% of his shots, including 31.3% from three-point territory, taking 19.8 shots per game. Essentially, Randle’s perceived scoring explosion is mostly smoke and mirrors. There are exceptions, of course, like his 46-point performance against the Sacramento Kings on March 7th, where he hit 18 of his 31 shot attempts, including 8 of 16 from range.

Those games are the exception to the norm, but nevertheless become intriguing simply because of his capability to even have them in the first place.

The truth of the matter is this. This season, Randle has had more games hitting under 40% from the field (29) than he’s had games of over 50% (17). He has the same exact number of games in which he hits over 60% (four) and he’s had games in which he failed to hit over 20%.

The Knicks rarely get the same version of Randle, leaving his teammates to pick up the pieces from his bad games, and being forced to adapt to games where he dominates, understanding they won’t see the ball as much in those games.

In between the inconsistencies is a Randle, who often visually looks like a player who isn’t engaged. His shot-selection is spotty, and his defensive effort comes and goes, which probably could be forgiven if he often didn’t look like a player who’d want to do anything but play basketball some nights.

It’s unfair to guess on Randle’s own perception of the Knicks and his role on the team, since body language is hardly a reliable science by any measure. What is fair is pointing at New York’s results this year and wondering out loud what role Randle has played in New York’s decline, after winning 56.9% of their games last year, compared to just 41.7% this season.

The contractual consideration

Making things even more difficult is the fact that Randle signed a contract extension for four seasons, valued at $117 million, which kicks in at the start of next season. Randle will go from a 2021-2022 cap hit of $19.8 million to over $23.7 million, with increases that concludes with a compensation of $29.4 million in 2025-2026.

That’s a lot of cheddar for a player who has been this inconsistent for near a full season.

As such, the Knicks have some fairly big questions to ask themselves over the coming months, simply in regards to whether they wish to hang onto Randle or not for the long-term, or if they prefer a clean slate. Of course, that’s only one part of a potentially bigger problem, which centers around his market. Specifically, does he even have one?

Teams have assuredly watched him play this entire season, and come away unimpressed. Certainly, some times will look at that contract and be scared of taking on such a vast amount of money, with no assurances of a return to 2020-2021 form, where he averaged over 24 points, 10 rebounds and six assists, on a TS of 56.7% over a full year.

And even if a team was interested, there likely wouldn’t ever be a major bidding war for his services, meaning any offer presented to the Knicks will likely be underwhelming from a perspective of production and overall value.

That brings us to the big question. Should the Knicks just accept any offer that gets his contract off the books as soon as possible?

If a team offers immediate salary relief, it’s worth discussing internally, solely to reset the franchise financially, even if it comes at great talent expense. Because that is still what Randle is. Incredibly talented, to a point where it’s difficult to comprehend how things this season could have gone this bad.

Whatever lies in Randle’s future – be that a Knicks return or playing in new colors – the Knicks will need to make a call on what needs to happen. Will they keep getting enticed by his talent, or will they be proactive and deal him away to reset the roster around RJ Barrett? Time will tell. But surely, all options must be on the table.