The Ukrainian Military Is Changing Its Tactics With The Bayraktar TB2 Drones

During the first four months of the Russia-Ukraine war, the “Most Valuable Player” award could readily go to the Bayraktar TB2 drone. This drone provided the Ukrainians with the necessary air power to repel the initial Russian assault and then slow the Russian advances in the Donbas region. Despite the numerous successes of the TB2 drone, reports indicate that their usage in the Donbas region has become limited due to a large number of Russian anti-aircraft systems.

The importance of the TB2 drones to the Ukrainians cannot be overstated. According to Oryx, a blog that tracks the destruction of military equipment through open-source reports, these drones are credited with destroying the following: 6 armored fighting vehicles, 5 towed artillery, 1 multi-rocket launcher, 2 anti-aircraft guns, 10 helicopters, 6 naval ships, 3 command posts, 1 communication station, 2 logistics trains, and numerous resupply trucks. The Ukrainian military reportedly started the war with just 30 of these drones and have lost only 8 in combat. Additionally, they recently received a gift of another TB2 drone from the Lithuanians who crowd-sourced funds to purchase one.

The Ukrainian military used the TB2 drone to search for and destroy key targets behind enemy lines. In doing so, the TB2 drone has gained worldwide recognition, with several analysts claiming that this family of drones has changed the nature of warfare. Meanwhile, the manufacturers of the drone have stated that the drones are now in high demand from militaries across the world.

Unfortunately for the TB2, the Russian military has focused their offense on the Donbas region. In doing so, they have been able to consolidate their anti-aircraft assets to that region rather than having them spread out across the country. The Russian military has now had the necessary time to repair the systems damaged in the initial invasion, while augmenting their anti-aircraft batteries with systems that were captured or held in reserve.

Moreover, the Russian military appears to have learned their lesson from the initial assault, where their anti-aircraft systems were focused primarily on protecting front-line units, allowing the Ukrainians to use the TB2 to target the vulnerable supply lines and command nodes. With more assets and a consolidated region, the Russian military is able to provide coverage to most of their forces including their logistical units.

Although much of the anti-aircraft assets are Soviet-era, the Russian military is likely also implementing new technology onto the battlefield, especially given their historical usage of electromagnetic weapons. The Russians first shot down a TB2 drone in mid-March; they have had ample time to study the drone and find vulnerabilities. By identifying the transmission frequencies and other electromagnetic signatures, the Russian military can more effectively detect and target the drones. Furthermore, the Russians could potentially jam the control signals to drone as well.

Given their limited supply of TB2 drones, the Ukrainian military is unlikely to fly them into areas where there is a high potential for them to get shot down, thus they are limiting their usage in the Donbas region. However, this is not a large blow to the Ukrainian forces. Given the close range between the Russian and Ukrainian ground forces, artillery fire can provide similar effects, albeit less accurate. Meanwhile, the TB2 drones can be used elsewhere. Recently, these drones featured heavily on the Ukrainian attempt to reclaim Snake Island, where they destroyed an ammunition depot, a command post, and a vehicle storage building. They were also used in destroying a tugboat in the Black Sea.

It is important to note that although the Russians may have shut down the drone strikes in the Donbas region, they have not achieved air superiority. The Ukrainians have been reinforced with new anti-aircraft weaponry from the international community and are deploying them into the Donbas region. With neither side having air-superiority, the war will likely continue to be a slow-moving battle of attrition.

As the war continues into its fourth month, the Bayraktar TB2 drone will likely continue to play a role in the conflict. However, it will likely not see the same degree of success that it saw over the past four months, especially in the Donbas region.