The Toronto Raptors Should Blow Everything Sky-High This Summer

With the NBA draft less than three weeks away, the Toronto Raptors find themselves as the lone team in the NBA without a head coach. It should come as no surprise if the organization make a decision soon, as most teams prefer to have their coach in place before going into the draft, followed by free agency.

But perhaps more importantly than a head coach is identifying the right path forward for these Raptors, a team that disappointed in the regular season, and one that could lose their entire starting backcourt, and tbrir starting center, this summer with nothing coming back.

Jakob Pöltl is an unrestricted free agent. Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr both have player options that they can turn down, effectively morphing their status into unrestricted free agents as well. If two of the three leave, the Raptors would likely be forced into a rebuild, wherein they pivot off both Pascal Siakam and O.G. Anunoby before they hit the open market.

(For the sake of clarity, Siakam is entering the final year of his contract, and Anunoby has a player option for 2024/2025, meaning both could leave next offseason.)

Even in the unlikely scenario of VanVleet and Trent Jr picking up their respective player options, and return for one more year, is it worth trying to keep this core together?

Let’s start with the long-term financial situation, which is going to be tricky.

Even if VanVleet opts into his $22.8 million salary for next year – which he won’t given the market value – he’ll be up for a new contract in 2024 that will see him on a substantially higher salary than what he’s on now, presumably in the range of $30 million per year.

Trent Jr, projected to earn $18.5 million next season, could be looking at a somewhat similar deal as the one he’s on now, likely with an annual compensation level of a clean $20 million. Shooting and defense remain attractive elements, after all.

Pöltl, who has been underpaid for a few years now, is likely to receive something in the $15-18 million range per year, and perhaps even $20 million if an outside team is willing to spike up the price.

Now comes the time to hand out new deals to Siakam and Anunoby. Siakam, earning $37.9 million next year, could easily justify asking for a contract that averages over $40 million per year. Anunoby, who has seen his market value increase dramatically, would be looking at a deal of well over $30 million per year, if not $35 million.

For the above five players, we could easily be looking at $130-140 million. And that’s before taking into account that Scottie Barnes will be up for an extension after the conclusion of next year, and he’s likely to earn well over $20 million per year.

That’s an incredibly expensive team that has little upside to compete for the championship. And losing a single one of the above components isn’t going to make the team better, nor is the loss of a player’s contract going to affect their long-term financial situation all that much.

Perhaps now is the best time to think about the future. Nick Nurse was fired, and is now in Philadelphia. That means the culture is ready for a reset.

Team President Masai Ujiri could field trade offers for both Siakam and Anunoby, and be open to engage in sign-and-trade scenarios that would bring VanVleet, Trent Jr, and Pöltl elsewhere.

In fact, the Raptors could very likely fetch quite the return if they were willing to part ways with all five players. That may seem dramatic, but given the specific circumstances the Raptors find themselves in, it might present the best course of action.

Ujiri will likely be able to swing an advantageous deal with the Portland Trail Blazers, a team eternally devoted to Damian Lillard, and open to moving off the third overall selection in this month’s draft. The Blazers need stars alongside Lillard, and Siakam would fit that description.

If the Raptors were inclined, perhaps they could even offer a mega trade of both Siakam and Anunoby. The Blazers would have to relinquish every long-term asset under the sun to pull it off, and they’d need to settle a pick situation with Chicago to free up future selections, but that would be the kind of deal that gets both teams to where they want to be.

If the Raptors were to start over with a core of Barnes, Shaedon Sharpe, Anfernee Simons, the third pick in this year’s draft, Trenton Watford, and Nassir Little, that’s solid a start.

(Other elements, such as Kevin Knox, Keon Johnson, Jabari Walker, and a plethora of future unprotected first round picks, would have to be included to align value, and any deal would have to be included in July to free up financial wiggle room.)

Ujiri could then follow that move up by getting what he can get in the aforementioned sign-and-trade possibility with VanVleet and Trent Jr going elsewhere. He wouldn’t cash in to the same extent, but just getting something for two players who could leave regardless would be a win.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.