The Top 2024 Free Agent Pitchers To Watch In 2023

After an off-season period that saw just shy of $5 billion signed to 350 players, time will only tell which of these free agents, extensions or arbitration signings prove to be worth the pay day, or who will be the vein of a fan bases’ existence.

But, with still so much time to grade these previous signings, it’s never too early to take a look at which signings are yet to come.

So, of the pitching pool set to be free agents following this year, which of them have the biggest year to worry about their upcoming payday?

(Honorable Mention Pitchers: Lucas Giolito, Blake Snell, Ryne Stanek, Blake Trienen)

Aaron Nola

After a less than ideal postseason for the career Phillie, Aaron Nola enters the 2023 season in the last year of his 4-year, $45 million arbitration extension signed in 2019.

Nola has seen the highs and lows of being a franchise’s ace in the midst of a rebuild and of a World Series run, and his performances have mimicked the highs and lows of the team since debuting in 2015.

In his career, Nola has a 3.60 ERA in 203 starts, which is good enough for an ERA+ of 117.

But, it is clear that Nola has sought to replicate his 2018 All-Star, third-place Cy Young year, where he finished 33 starts with a 2.37 ERA over 212.1 innings.

Since then, he has posted a 3.87, 3.28, 4.63 and a 3.25 in the following 4 seasons.

His first taste of the postseason started strong, as his first two starts were to the tune of 0 earned runs over 12.2 innings pitched, with 12 strikeouts to 3 walks.

Then, the NLCS and World Series blew up his overall postseason numbers, as Nola wore 14 earned runs in 3 starts over 13 innings.

So, as you can tell by the numbers, Nola has the potential to be a Cy Young finalist this year, or could potentially see his worst year on the mound.

But, with the Phillies defense taking a significant step up with the signing of Trea Turner, alongside complementary pieces like Bryson Stott moving to second base or Josh Harrison being added for depth, Nola could be able to rely on his defense more this year.

And with Zack Wheeler taking the ace spot since being signed for 5-years, $118 million in 2020, Philadelphia may not jump on the opportunity to bring the homegrown talent back, so Nola could see the biggest potential swing of any free agent pitcher based on his upcoming season.

Luis Severino

Looking at another home grown talent on the final year of their arbitration extension, the Yankees’ Luis Severino is set to become a free agent after 2023, ending his 4-year, $40 million buyout in 2019.

In terms of relied-upon success, Severino’s talent level rivals some of the best pitchers in the game.

For his career, Severino has a 3.39 ERA in 122 outings, but if you take out his 2016 season where he was split between the bullpen and a starting role, he has a 3.10 ERA in 504.2 innings, also known as a 138 ERA+.

The only issue with Severino has been his workload, as he has missed part of the latter half of every season since 2019. This has let the once two-time All-Star with over 190 innings pitched in both 2017 and 2018 to combine for just 120 innings in the last 4 years.

Simply put, if Severino is able to have a healthy year and at least neighbor his 2017 and 2018 workload, he just needs to produce at a level within his career average, which can be expected considering in 102 innings last year he still produced a 3.18 ERA.

Pairing this with the fact that he enters this year as the fourth starter in the rotation, behind Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Nestor Cortes, Severino could also see himself in a new jersey next year. And in a new tax bracket.

Josh Hader

After unexpectedly joining the list of superstars in San Diego last year, Josh Hader enters his final year of arbitration 2023 on a 1-year, $14 million deal.

But despite his struggles after joining the California squad, most baseball fans can agree that Hader should return towards his dominant self.

Over his 6-year career, Hader has 132 saves in 332.1 innings pitched, with a 0.918 WHIP and a 15.2 SO9.

In terms of lefty closers, Hader already finds himself at 19th all-time on the saves list.

Since becoming an integral part of the Brewers bullpen in 2018, Hader has averaged 57 outings and 78 innings a year, as he is one of the few premiere closers that can regularly go multiple innings.

Outside of David Price being converted to a reliever after signing a contract for a starter, Hader has a fairly easy opportunity to become the highest paid reliever, which coming off of the Padres spending patterns, could allow him to not even move his furniture.

Jack Flaherty

The Cardinals Jack Flaherty has a strong argument for the highest stakes of any upcoming free agent arm, as the trajectory of his career, alongside his next contract could be determined based on his availability and performance in 2023.

Pitching for $5.4 million this year, Flaherty ends his arbitration years with the Cardinals with a wide range of expectations.

Going chronologically, Flaherty began his career as dominant as any young pitcher has, winning rookie of the year votes in 2018 with a 3.34 ERA in 28 starts, than a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts which gave him Cy Young and MVP votes.

Even in the 2019 postseason he continued to perform, going 17 innings over 3 starts and allowing 8 earned runs with 22 strikeouts and 4 walks.

Since 2019, it has been a different story for the former 1st rounder, as he posted a 4.91 ERA in 9 starts in 2020, then injuries only allowed him to make 17 appearances in 2021 and 9 in 2022.

So, the pros are obviously his proven upside, and the fact that he generally has pretty low mileage on his arm thus far. The cons are his durability, which could plague him with the “injury prone” title if he spends time on the IL, whether appropriate or not.

If Flaherty performs this year, he could find himself surpassing six figures by leaps and bounds. But if he sees less than 20 starts again, a multi-year deal potentially turns into a two-year prove it deal.

Shohei Ohtani

And lastly, let’s look at the pitching half of the 8th wonder of the world: Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani, who has the potential of earning $600 million, earned one of the highest arbitration signings in MLB history with a $30 million deal this past year, due to his ability to be 2 roster spots put into one.

But just on the pitching side of things, Ohtani just saw his best year on the rubber, posting a 2.33 ERA (career-low) in 166 innings over 28 starts, which are all a career high.

He was fourth in Cy Young votes and second in MVP votes, all coming off his MVP year last year, but it was clear that Ohtani’s offseason work may have favored his abilities on the mound, as his batting did regress from his 46 homer year.

But even before this recent year of success, Ohtani still had a successful year as an everyday starter in 2021, logging 130.1 innings to a 3.18 ERA.

Since coming to the MLB, Ohtani’s bat clicked almost instantly. The injuries caused him to be shut down for 2019 and 2020. But since proving the ability to do both these past two years, he has basically ensured himself a hefty pay day regardless of how this year fares.

The only difference he can make this year is by the margin of how he’ll break the top contract in MLB history.