The time to adjust rates is upon us

Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly hit newswires on Monday, cautioning that despite the clear signs of the need for rate adjustments, markets shouldn’t run too far, too fast with expectations about the size and frequency.

Key highlights

The time to adjust policy is upon us. It’s hard to imagine anything could derail sept rate cut.

I don’t want to keep making policy tighter, as inflation comes down.

The labor market is completely in balance.

I am not hearing signs that firms are poised for layoffs.

I don’t see signs of abrupt weakening in the labor market.

I don’t see warning signs of weakness, but I want to be sure to adjust policy as we go.

It is too early to know how big rate cuts will be.

The most likely outcome is that we continue to get gradual inflation slowing, and a sustainable pace of labor market growth.

It is reasonable to adjust policy at normal cadence if the economy develops as expected.

If the economy weakens more than anticipated, we would need to be more aggressive.

It is reasonable to adjust policy at normal cadence if the economy develops as expected.

If the economy weakens more than anticipated, we would need to be more aggressive.

I do not want to see the labor market weaken further.

We want the labor market to stay about where it is. We need to adjust policy rate to keep it there.

I don’t want to declare we are on the path to neutral.

We could see the neutral real rate to be as high as 1%.

We have a long way to go, and even after cutting rates we will be restrictive.

I expect growth to be at or a little below trend.

We are far from declaring victory, but we will get inflation to the goal.