The Texas Rangers Are Approaching An Inflection Point

What kind of team are the Texas Rangers? Almost halfway through the season, we still don’t have an answer.

At 36-39, they could still finish anywhere from first to last in the American League West, and no outcome would be too surprising. The club is approaching an inflection point in the 2025 season, not just because they need to go on a run if they want to contend for the playoffs, but because the front office has decide whether they’ll be buyers or sellers before the trade deadline.

The Rangers have a lot of key players who have been disappointing, inconsistent, or unhealthy for much of the year. They could either stabilize and right the ship, or flatline and sink the season.

Rangers Hitters

Their best hitters haven’t been veterans Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, or Joc Pederson. Seager hasn’t found his power stroke, posting a .387 slugging percentage that is 120 points below his career average. He also missed about a month’s worth of games with two separate injuries in April and May. His .714 OPS is a little bit higher than the MLB average, but it’s the lowest mark of his 11-year career by far.

Semien and Pederson have been negatives at the plate. The former is hitting .226/.306/.337 with an 88 OPS+, indicating his offense has been 12% below average, and the latter was hitting .131/.269/.238 before going on the injured list with a fractured hand on May 24.

Their best hitter has been the less-heralded Josh Smith, who leads the club with a 132 OPS+ and has started games at every position except catcher and pitcher this year. He was Seager’s replacement at shortstop when he was hurt, but he has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury.

Wyatt Langford has emerged as a solid hitter with a 118 OPS+, but his former top prospect counterpart Evan Carter has continued to befuddle the organization. He has bounced between the major and minor leagues and dealt with minor ailments, so he has only 80 plate appearances for the Rangers this year, but he’s hitting a healthy .254/.338/.465. However, 10 of his 18 hits came over a four-game stretch from June 8 to June 12 in which he went 10-16. Outside of those games, he’s only 8-55.

Rangers Pitchers

Two of the Rangers’ best starting pitchers are out of action for the time being. Nathan Eovaldi’s 1.56 ERA through 12 starts would be the best in MLB if he had enough innings to qualify, but he’s on the shelf with triceps inflammation. He’s joined on the IL by Tayler Mahle, who has a sore shoulder and owns a 2.34 ERA despite a low 18.2% strikeout rate.

Two older hurlers have been better than expected for Texas. Jacob deGrom hasn’t thrown more than 92 innings in a season since 2019, but the 37-year-old has a 2.19 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and hasn’t missed a start. Patrick Corbin had ERAs ranging from 5.20 to 6.31 over this last four years with the Washington Nationals, but it’s down to 3.91 this season.

No one knows what to make of their two highly-regarded young arms. Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker were teammates at Vanderbilt who were both drafted in the top ten overall. Leiter has been reliable, if unexceptional. He’s maintaining a 4.40 ERA and a 4.91 FIP. His 97.7 mph fastball isn’t blowing hitters away, and he’s fanning only 18.9% of them. Rocker was a disaster through his first six starts, posting an 8.87 ERA and getting demoted twice, but he threw five shutout innings in his most recent outing.

Right now, the Rangers don’t have a fifth starter in their rotation. They’ll have to make a decision about what to do in the next few days, which serves as a metaphor for their entire season. They need their pitching to get and stay healthy, their big bats to produce more offense, and their youngsters like Carter and Rocker to do more than tantalize their potential.