The stock market is pricing in a 70% chance of a ‘near-term’ recession, JP Morgan says

If you are a believer that price is truth in the stock market, then the latest research from the Street is worth seeing.

“We estimate U.S. and Euro area equity markets are pricing in a ~70% probability of a near-term recession,” said JP Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic in a research note on Wednesday.

Kolanovic’s research sticks out as firms such as Goldman Sachs have predicted a 35% chance of a recession within two years. Deutsche Bank is the only investment bank on Wall Street to outright predict a recession next year.

At the same time, Kolanovic — a long-time market bull — said the market may be pricing in too much negativity.

“We are also skeptical of the idea that April’s equity fund outflow, the highest since March 2020, is only the beginning of a more protracted phase of outflows,” Kolanovic said, adding that investors should be buying dips in oil and oil-related stocks. “We therefore maintain a pro-risk stance.”

Signs of slowing growth are all over the place right now.

Large discount retailers Walmart and Target reported massive first-quarter earnings misses this week on the back of bruising inflation. Both companies warned about full-year profits, despite each eyeing price increases to offset ongoing supply chain inflation and a more cautious shopper.

“We never expected the kind of cost increases in freight and transportation that we’re seeing right now,” Target chairman and CEO Brian Cornell told Yahoo Finance.

The combined market caps of Target and Walmart plunged more than $65 billion in the past two days in the wake of their alarming commentary, according to Yahoo Finance Plus data.

Meanwhile, market sell-offs have been most acute in big-cap tech names as traders grow more concerned about valuations.

All five components of the closely watched FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) complex have shed more than 18% year-to-date, led by a nearly 70% crash for Netflix.

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Institutional investors, according to a new survey from Bank of America, have never been more bearish about the tech sector.

Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and anchor at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

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