The Southeast U.S. Could Hit 80 Deg F This Week

On the treadmill this morning, I was looking at temperature maps for this week. Parts of the Southeast could hit or exceed 80 degrees F by the end of the week. It was only last week that we were celebrating Valentine’s Day. I am sure many of you are wondering if that is early? Here’s the answer.

If you are curious about the entire U.S., Brian Donegan did a nice job answering this question at Weather Underground several years ago. For the Southeast, he wrote, “Much of the Southeast expects to reach 80 degrees F for the first time in March, including Atlanta, Raleigh, North Carolina, and Nashville, Tennessee….also the case for parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains, including Little Rock, Arkansas, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.” Some areas further south towards the Gulf Coast can see that temperature threshold exceeded in February.

I decided to pull NOAA climate data for Atlanta to illustrate this point. In the graphic above several things are evident. This climatological temperature record spans the period 1878 to 2023. The reddish-pink line shows record maximum temperature and the brown region shows the normal temperature range. As a reminder, climatologists use a sliding 30-year period for “normal.” The current normal period is 1991 to 2020. I was able to find a few 80 degree F temperatures in February using the interactive map. So, yes, it is not unprecedented to have 80 degree F temperatures with your leftover Valentine’s chocolate. However, it is clearly not the normal situation. March is when we typically expect the first 80 deg F temperatures, on average.

This week NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center says, “Temperatures will be upwards of 10-20 degrees above normal across the central and eastern U.S. Monday.” Lingering high pressure and a southerly-to-southwesterly flow pattern are typically associated with warmer temperatures here in the South. What about 90 degree F days? For fun, I did the New York Times interactive exercise to see if my hometown in the Atlanta suburbs is warming. The results told me that when I was born Canton, Georgia received about twenty 90+ degree F days. Today, it can expect around 42 of them.

Now look, one warm day or week does not confirm climate change. We have the opposite problem with people refuting it on cold days. However, there is certainly plenty of evidence beyond this week to confirm that climate warming is a “thing.” As nice as the temperatures are, they also bring things like early blooming, pollen, and allergies. So get ready.