The Sixers’ Title Hopes Rest On Getting More Out Of James Harden

The Philadelphia 76ers have jumped out to a 2-0 series lead over the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the 2023 NBA playoffs. They’re now commanding -4500 favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Semifinals, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, where they’re likely to clash with the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics.

To topple their Atlantic Division rivals in the next round, the Sixers will need James Harden to get back to being a three-level scorer.

Harden shot only 11-of-34 from the floor during the first two games against the Nets, including 2-of-13 from two-point range. He had his step-back jumper working in Game 1 (7-of-13 from three-point range), but he was ice-cold in Game 2, finishing with only eight points on 3-of-13 shooting overall (2-of-8 from deep).

In Game 1, the Nets liberally switched their defensive assignments, allowing Harden to pick on mismatches at times. Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O’Neale spent the most time guarding him—and he shot 2-of-6 against them as his primary defender—but he went 4-of-5 against Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris and Seth Curry.

In Game 2, the Nets made a concerted effort to keep O’Neale and Mikal Bridges on Harden. Bridges guarded him for a game-high 24.2 partial possessions, and Harden scored zero points on 0-of-1 shooting against him. He didn’t fare much better against O’Neale (1-of-2 overall), although he did pick up two assists against only one turnover.

“I think the matchup of putting Mikal on James had its benefits, for sure,” Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn told reporters after the game. “Look at James’ stats.”

The Nets’ rangy wings have bothered Harden with their length on defense, but the degree of difficult will only ramp up against Boston. The Celtics have 2021-22 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart and Derrick White in the backcourt alongside the All-Star duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. With Malcolm Brogdon coming off the bench, Harden won’t be able to hunt mismatches like he has at times against Brooklyn.

Even at his peak, elite speed never fueled Harden’s scoring ability. Rather than blow by defenders like Tyrese Maxey or De’Aaron Fox, Harden relied more on footwork and craftiness to draw contact and muscle through defenders for and-one opportunities.

Those have been few and far between against Brooklyn, particularly in transition.

Harden’s inability to draw shooting fouls may be the most concerning aspect of his performance thus far against Brooklyn. He attempted only 6.2 free-throw attempts per game during the regular season, which was his lowest mark since the 2011-12 campaign, when he was a sixth man with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Still, he had at least one free-throw attempt in all 58 of the regular-season outings in which he appeared this year.

Harden did not attempt a single free throw in either Game 1 or Game 2 against Brooklyn, which is a major outlier relative to his career norm.

Prior to this season, Harden had played in 149 playoff games. He had zero free-throw attempts in only 10 of those games, seven of which came with the Thunder early in his career. Another one was the game against the Milwaukee Bucks in which he played only one minute before injuring his hamstring and exiting.

Harden also had zero free-throw attempts in the Sixers’ season-ending loss to the Miami Heat in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals last year. He’s now riding a three-game playoff streak without a single trip to the charity stripe.

Updated NBA points of emphasis may be partially to blame, as referees have been instructed to “enforce the playing rules in a manner that reduces the incentive for offensive players to use non-basketball moves to draw fouls.” With that said, Harden did have double-digit free-throw attempts in nine regular-season games this season. Referees may be more inclined to swallow their whistles and allow more physical contact in the playoffs, but that doesn’t fully explain such a stark drop-off in free-throw attempts.

It’s fair to wonder whether health may be contributing to Harden’s struggles around the rim. He missed a few games late in the regular season because of Achilles soreness, although he repeatedly batted away concern about the injury following his return.

“It’s been bothering me for some months, I would say,” Harden told reporters in late March. “I just wanted to continue to play on it, and there was one point to where the last game I played, [it was] just really unbearable so I couldn’t even go out there.”

In that game—a double-overtime loss to the Chicago Bulls—Harden finished with a season-low five points on 2-of-14 shooting. That was his worst shooting performance with the Sixers, although he did have 12 assists, seven rebounds, one steal and one block as well.

After practice Wednesday, Rivers said suboptimal floor spacing may be partially to blame for Harden’s mediocre shooting as well.

“Even when James did get in the paint, two of our guys were standing there,” he told reporters. “In basketball, you get to the paint, it’s OK if two defensive players are there, but two of your guys shouldn’t be there as well because that makes it easier for them to help. I thought our spacing was really poor in transition especially, and that’s where it has to be at its best.”

Even if Harden can’t get going as a scorer, he’s by far the Sixers’ best playmaker, particularly in the half court. They can’t afford to turn away from him in favor of De’Anthony Melton or Shake Milton, particularly whenever Joel Embiid is off the floor. Harden has also been paired with the second unit in recent months, which has helped that group generate cleaner offense.

“He ran the team in the second half,” head coach Doc Rivers told reporters after Game 2. “That’s what we needed him to do tonight. He didn’t have a great offensive night scoring, but the second-half adjustment by James, because he had to be the guy to do it, he ran the team, and that’s why we won the game.”

Meanwhile, Maxey noted Wednesday that the defensive attention Harden draws on his drives to the basket opens up opportunities for his teammates, even when he isn’t scoring.

“He’s getting there,” he told reporters. “He’s just gotta finish it. It’s not like he can’t get there. He’s getting to the rim. I’m not worried about James making layups, but you’re right. When he gets to the rim, the defense has to collapse, and they know that he’s a threat to score in there.”

Given the overall talent gap between the two teams, the Sixers should be able to dispatch the Nets even with a diminished version of Harden. But if they do meet the Celtics in the next round, they’ll need Harden to be far more consistent as a scorer to advance to their first Eastern Conference Finals in 20-plus years.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.