The Sixers’ Options At Center Against The Celtics Until Joel Embiid Returns

The Philadelphia 76ers appear likely to begin the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals against the Boston Celtics without star center Joel Embiid.

Embiid suffered an LCL sprain in his right knee during Game 3 of the Sixers’ first-round sweep of the Brooklyn Nets. He missed the closeout Game 4 victory because of the injury, and his status remains murky.

On Saturday, Shams Charania of The Athletic reported Embiid’s injury “is considered to be more serious than a Grade 1 LCL sprain,” which typically takes 1-2 weeks to heal. On Sunday, the Sixers listed him as doubtful for Monday’s Game 1 against the Celtics.

There’s no way for the Sixers to adequately replace Embiid, who is likely to be named the NBA’s Most Valuable Player on Tuesday night. He averaged a league-high 33.1 points on a career-best 54.8 percent shooting along with 10.2 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 1.7 blocks per game during the regular season and is the Sixers’ fulcrum on both ends of the floor.

During the first round, the Nets routinely sent double- and triple-teams at Embiid as soon as he caught the ball. Regardless of whom the Sixers start in his place, they won’t get the same treatment from the Celtics, which will allow them to stay home on their respective defensive assignments.

With Embiid’s status for the series up in the air, the Celtics are heavy -460 favorites to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while the Sixers are +360 underdogs. Until Embiid returns, the Sixers will have to figure out how to tread water without their star big man and try to steal a game from the Celtics on the road.

When Embiid sat for Game 4 against the Nets, the Sixers slid backup center Paul Reed into his starting spot. Reed struggled in the first half, scoring only two points on 1-of-4 shooting along with five rebounds, but he went off for eight points on 4-of-6 shooting and 10 rebounds (including five offensive boards) in the second half.

After the game, Reed told reporters what changed for him after halftime.

“The first half, I came out trying to force shots that weren’t the best looks for the team,” he explained. “… Second half, I went out and every offensive rebound, if I didn’t have a wide-open layup, I kicked it out. It helped us a lot. We were getting a lot of good looks.”

The Sixers will need Reed to stay in that second-half mentality against the Celtics, who were one of the NBA’s best-shooting teams during the regular season. They ranked second in both made three-pointers and three-pointers attempted per game, and they were sixth in three-point shooting percentage. The Sixers will run into a math problem if they try to fight the Celtics’ threes with too many two-point shots.

The bigger question is what the Sixers do whenever Reed is off the floor. Their remaining options at center are a pair of end-of-the-bench players in Montrezl Harrell and Dewayne Dedmon, or they could go with a small-ball lineup featuring P.J. Tucker at the 5.

In Game 4 against the Nets, Rivers started Reed at center and then pivoted to the small-ball Tucker unit midway through the first quarter. He brought in Harrell with a bench-heavy unit at the end of the first—and Harrell broke even during his four-minute stint—but he stuck with either Reed or Tucker throughout the entire second half.

The Sixers had a much larger margin of error against the undermanned Nets, who shipped out Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant ahead of the trade deadline, than they will the Celtics. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led them to 57 wins during the regular season, and the frontcourt combination of Al Horford and Robert Williams III would likely destroy either Harrell or Dedmon.

The Sixers’ best option until Embiid returns is to stick solely to a rotation between Reed and Tucker at center (barring significant foul trouble). The real question is how they should match minutes against the Celtics’ primary bigs.

The 6’9″ Horford is more of a floor-stretching, switchable center, while the 6’9″ Williams is far more offensively limited and tends to play closer to the basket. On paper, Tucker might match up better against Horford, while Reed could be more evenly matched against Williams. However, the Sixers figure to want Tucker to defend either Tatum or Brown for hefty portions of the game, too.

Reed’s switchability against Horford could work to the Sixers’ benefit, too. When the two teams met in late February, Horford swung the game with a series of three-pointers in the third quarter. Dismal transition defense was largely to blame, but Embiid was playing in too deep of a drop against the stretchy Horford.

Reed tends to play up closer to the level of the screen on defense, which could limit the number of wide-open three-point attempts that the Celtics can generate. They’ll have plenty of other ways to punish the Sixers’ defense as well, but the Sixers need to take away any source of easy offense that they can.

Even if Reed and Tucker hold up defensively, the Sixers will need big offensive games from the likes of James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and/or De’Anthony Melton to steal a game from the Celtics without Embiid. But if they tighten their rotation and avoid diving deep into their bench, they’ll likely maximize their odds of doing so.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.