The Sixers Have A Matisse Thybulle Dilemma In The 2022 NBA Offseason

The 2022 NBA playoffs were Matisse Thybulle’s last chance to prove his value to the Philadelphia 76ers before he became eligible to sign an extension.

He did, well, the opposite of that.

Thybulle wasn’t allowed to play on the road against the Toronto Raptors in the Sixers’ opening-round series because he hadn’t gotten fully vaccinated against Covid-19. Whenever he did play, his lack of a threatening jump shot overshadowed his defensive impact, as both the Raptors and Miami Heat largely ignored him to send help elsewhere.

“The players who are sort of extreme one-way-type players, it’s challenging in the playoffs,” team president Daryl Morey told reporters about Thybulle at his end-of-season press conference. “It’s challenging for the coaches; it’s challenging for the players. I think for Matisse, his mission, which he knows, is how can he improve in ways that makes him someone that can make more of an impact in the playoffs. I think he will in the future.”

With Danny Green likely to miss most or all of next season with a torn ACL and LCL, the Sixers need a fifth starter whom they can count on in the playoffs, whether it’s Thybulle or someone else. They’ll need to decide whether they believe Thybulle will improve enough as a shooter this offseason to justify a long-term investment in him or if they need to address that position either via trade or free agency.

Thybulle started in a career-high 50 of his 66 regular-season appearances this year, although he averaged only 5.7 points in 25.5 minutes and shot 31.3 percent from three-point range on low volume (2.2 attempts per game). He wound up playing only 15.2 minutes per game in the playoffs and scored a total of 27 points across nine games while shooting 4-of-14 from deep.

The Washington product showed flashes of the defensive disruption that earned him a second-team All-Defensive nod last season, but he was inconsistent on that end of the floor. He picked up 15 personal fouls in only 137 minutes, as the Raptors and Heat used his aggressiveness against him and repeatedly got him to bite on pump fakes.

Even if Thybulle was a shutdown wing stopper, his negative impact on offense might offset what he provides on defense. Since he’s a career 32.4 percent three-point shooter, teams have no issue with leaving him wide open to send a second defender at Joel Embiid and James Harden. They dare him to shoot and trust the percentages will even out over time.

In his end-of-season press conference, head coach Doc Rivers said Thybulle’s offensive limitations made it difficult to play him during the playoffs. However, he expressed confidence that the 25-year-old will make strides on his shooting consistency this summer.

“He’s working on it,” Rivers said. “I can tell you that. It is difficult. One-way players are better in the regular season than the playoffs. I think we all know that, but Matisse is putting in the time. We hired the right resources, as far as staffing, shooting coaches and everybody, and more importantly, the right resource with Matisse is his work ethic. He’s putting in the work.

“It’s gradual. It’s called being patient and we are. I think it makes us more patient, because he works at it. We would be less patient if we didn’t think he was working at it. And the fact that he’s working at it, there were improvements. He became a better cutter this year. He ran the floor better this year. And the next step is to improve his shot, which we’re working on every day. And that’s going to be his marching orders this summer.”

Thybulle did show more flashes as a cutter this season, particularly after the Sixers acquired Harden at the trade deadline. Harden assisted on 27 of Thybulle’s 52 made field goals after the All-Star break, including 21 of his 37 inside the three-point arc. The two even showed some budding chemistry as pick-and-roll partners at times during the regular season.

“The way teams play James is pretty unique, and how they want to blitz him or force him right or whatever,” Thybulle told reporters in early March. “They throw a lot of things at him, and my goal essentially is to force a switch or get his guy off of him. And by doing a short roll, it allows to create space, and through that, he kind of does what he does.”

If the Sixers manage to retain Harden this summer, Thybulle can go into next season knowing that he’ll have an elite playmaker ready to set him up for wide-open shots. He had a defender within six feet of him on only three of his 39 three-point attempts after Harden’s debut, and he shot 38.9 percent on those looks. He’ll also need to develop his playmaking as a short roller if the Sixers hope to run more Harden-Thybulle pick-and-rolls next season.

“He’s a very capable shooter,” Green said about Thybulle on his Inside the Green Room podcast after the season. … “It’s more so just the confidence. But I’m sure he’ll be working on it a ton this summer and take a big stride in that area. But I see him being a big defensive factor as always, and then coming along and progressing in the offensive factor, making himself more of a two-way player.”

Given his struggles in the playoffs, it’s hard to imagine the Sixers offering Thybulle a lucrative extension this offseason. Unless he’s willing to agree to a team-friendly deal, they’ll likely be fine with him playing out the final year of his rookie-scale contract next season and becoming a restricted free agent in July 2023. At that point, they could match any offer sheet he signs with another team, barring drastic changes to the league’s collective bargaining agreement between now and then. (The league and/or the players association can—and likely will—opt out of the CBA by December, which will cause it to expire after the 2022-23 season.)

If the Sixers don’t believe Thybulle will develop enough offensively to become playable in the playoffs, they might also explore trades with him this summer. The Chicago Bulls are “one team with known interest” in him, according to Heavy.com’s Sean Deveney.

“Bulls GM Marc Eversley has had a fondness for Thybulle going back to early in his collegiate career at Washington, and was instrumental in pushing the Sixers to acquire him in the 2019 draft,” Deveney reported Thursday.

Thybulle’s meager salary would be a complicating factor in any trade, though. He earned only $2.8 million this past season and is set to earn $4.4 million next year.

Teams are limited in how much salary they can take back in a trade based on how much they send out and whether they’re above or below the luxury-tax line. Since the Sixers are above the tax threshold this season, they can take back no more than 125 percent of the salary they send out between now and June 30, plus $100,000.

If the Sixers dip below the tax line next year, they could take back 175 percent of the outgoing salary plus $100,000 if they send out less than $6.5 million or the outgoing salary plus $5 million if they send between $6.5 million and $19.6 million. They could take back no more than $7.8 million if they traded Thybulle on his own, which might not be enough to acquire an impact player.

The Sixers could guarantee Green’s $10 million salary for next season and package him as salary ballast with Thybulle to increase how much money they’re able to take back. They could also pair him with Furkan Korkmaz ($5 million next season) or one of their younger players, although Green is the only mid-sized contract at their disposal.

The other option would be to use Thybulle as a sweetener to get off the two years and $76.8 million remaining on Tobias Harris’ contract, particularly if they’re truly hoping to go hunting for another star this offseason. Doing so could leave them woefully thin at the wing/forward spots, but they might be able to shore up those areas with the $10.3 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception or $4.1 million bi-annual exception if Harden opts out and re-signs for less than his $46.5 million maximum salary.

Thybulle might not be the biggest domino for the Sixers this offseason—Harden gets that distinction until further notice—but what they decide to do with him could influence the rest of their roster’s direction.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.