AUSTIN, TEXAS – SEPTEMBER 06: Arch Manning #16 of the Texas Longhorns warms up before the game against the San Jose State Spartans at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on September 06, 2025 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
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This college football season has produced no shortage of surprising quarterback developments, and the SEC has been at the center of the most unexpected shifts. As one of college football’s premier conferences, the SEC entered the year with high expectations for its quarterbacks, particularly preseason Heisman hopefuls Arch Manning and Garrett Nussmeier. In mid-August, FanDuel Sportsbook listed them among the favorites, with odds of +700 for Manning and +800 for Nussmeier. Just four weeks into the season, those odds have dropped significantly to +4000 and +1700, reflecting a dramatic change in performance and perception. That represents an 80% reduction in Manning’s implied probability of winning the Heisman trophy and a 50% reduction in Nussmeier’s implied probability of winning the Heisman trophy.
GAINESVILLE, FLORIDA – NOVEMBER 16: Garrett Nussmeier #13 of the LSU Tigers is sacked by Shemar James #6 of the Florida Gators during the second half of a game at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on November 16, 2024 in Gainesville, Florida. (Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images)
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While preseason buzz focused on high-profile names like Arch Manning and Garrett Nussmeier, the first month of the season has highlighted a very different group of quarterbacks rising to national prominence. Players like Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza have outpaced many of their more hyped counterparts. This pattern fits a broader trend among SEC quarterbacks in the SEC. The preseason rankings appear almost inverted compared to on-field performance in the first portion of the season.
SEC Quarterback Preseason Rankings
Heading into the 2025 season, the SEC was expected to showcase one of the deepest quarterback groups in college football. Across preseason rankings from national outlets, three names consistently appeared at or near the top: Arch Manning (Texas), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), and DJ Lagway (Florida). Manning, one of the most hyped quarterback recruits in recent memory, was finally stepping into the spotlight as the starting quarterback at Texas. Nussmeier, with multiple seasons under Brian Kelly’s system, was seen as ready to command one of the league’s most complete offenses. Lagway, a sophomore with elite dual-threat tools, generated major buzz during spring and summer workouts.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 20: DJ Lagway #2 of the Florida Gators dives for a first down against the Miami Hurricanes during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium on September 20, 2025 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
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Examining three preseason SEC quarterback power rankings from CBS Sports, 247 Sports, and Athlon Sports reveals analysts’ beliefs on relative quarterback ability heading into the season. These rankings all predicted Joey Aguilar (Tennessee) and Ty Simpson (Alabama) to be in the bottom half of SEC quarterbacks for the season.
Comparing SEC Quarterback Preseason Ranking To In-Season Performance
Once the season begins, projections give way to performance. And to measure that performance, one of the most reliable tools we have is passer rating. Passer rating, often abbreviated as RTG, is a traditional efficiency metric used in college football to evaluate quarterbacks. It takes into account a quarterback’s completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdowns, and interceptions, all combined into a single number. The higher the rating, the more efficiently a quarterback is operating within the offense.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – AUGUST 30: Joey Aguilar #6 of the Tennessee Volunteers throws the ball during a game between Syracuse Orange vs Tennessee Volunteers in the Aflac Kickoff Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on August 30, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Andrew J. Clark/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
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When stacking the projected quarterback rankings next to the current passer ratings after four weeks, several surprises emerge. Some of the quarterbacks expected to lead the conference, like Arch Manning, Garrett Nussmeier, and DJ Lagway, are currently well behind less heralded names. Meanwhile, players like Joey Aguilar and Ty Simpson, who were ranked near the bottom in August, now sit among the most efficient passers in the SEC.
the table shows the average preseason power ranking of each SEC quarterback compared to the passer rating ranking as of September 26, 2025. The right-most column shows the difference between those rankings. This season’s SEC seems to be almost upside down compared to preseason expectations.
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This disconnect between expectations and production offers a window into just how unpredictable quarterback development can be, especially in college football.
New SEC Quarterback Order
The early weeks of the 2025 season have reshuffled the SEC’s quarterback hierarchy in ways few could have predicted. Preseason expectations, grounded in pedigree and projection, have quickly collided with the reality of on-field performance. Quarterbacks like Joey Aguilar and Ty Simpson are now among the most efficient passers in the conference, while big-name Heisman hopefuls have struggled to meet the lofty standards set before them. As the season progresses and schedules toughen, some of these trends may stabilize or even reverse. But through four weeks, one thing is clear: the SEC quarterback conversation has changed.