The Russia-Ukraine Information War Has More Fronts Than You Think

The West has proclaimed Ukraine’s victory in the information war. Memes like the Ghost of Kyiv and the soldiers of Snake Island, impassioned speeches by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, horrific images of Russian-wrought destruction, photos of millions of Ukrainians fleeing their homes, and tales of Miss Ukraine laying down her tiara and picking up a machine gun beside millions of her countrymen have captivated the West. No doubt this narrative is partially responsible for the outpouring of Western munitions and military assistance to Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and aid to displaced Ukrainians. If the objective of Ukraine’s information war was to gain sympathy and assistance from the West, Ukraine has certainly succeeded.

However, the information war has more than just a Western front. While the West dismisses Russian narratives, other influential actors are listening and embracing them. Russia’s narrative is carrying sway in the developing world and in China – and some of its disinformation is being parroted by conspiracy theorists within the U.S. Russia’s war disinformation will have consequences for international relations long after the war. The West must act to counter it.

The Global South has been reluctant to condemn Russia for the war and to counter its disinformation. Forty countries did not support the UN General Assembly’s extraordinary resolution condemning the Russia invasion of Ukraine. Belarus, Eritrea, North Korea, and Syria chose to stand with Russia. The 35 abstentions unsurprisingly included China and Iran, but also included India, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, South Africa, South Sudan, and Vietnam—states which the U.S. has supported or had partnerships, or warmed relations with in recent years. The U.S. has been dismayed by many African states’ refusal to condemn the conflict, causing a strain in their relationships. A total of 17 African nations abstained on the UN General Assembly vote, and eight were absent. Of the 28 African states that supported the resolution, none elaborated on their position, with the notable exception of an impassioned anti-colonialist speech by the Kenyan ambassador. South Africa’s President, Cyrial Ramaphosa, has continued to parrot the Russian official position that it perceived a “national existential threat” from NATO and has criticized NATO’s rumored expansion into Ukraine. Correspondingly, a social media analysis conducted in mid-March by the firm CASM Technology has found that pro-Russian narratives are trending in language groups found in much of South Asia, South Africa, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Iran. Putin appears to be targeting these countries with his message to gain influence there. Based on their leaders’ positions, it appears to be working.

China, which more tightly controls its Internet than any other country in the world, has relentlessly promoted Moscow’s narrative. While China may be officially ambiguous about its support for Putin’s war, its state-controlled media lays its position bare. China and Russia resolved to strengthen their cooperation in media in 2015, and the war has shown the success of this initiative. Within hours of the invasion on February 24, the Chinese Communist Party’s Global Times posted a video saying that a large number of Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered, citing the Russian state-controlled media network RT. China’s state Central Television Station (CCTV) then promptly reported and spread on social media that Zelenskyy had fled Kyiv. Chinese media has repeated Russia’s positions that the war opposes the West, NATO expansion, Nazisim, and fascism, and is therefore justified. Meanwhile, it has reported that Ukraine is using civilians as human shields and torturing captured soldiers. Perhaps most dangerously for the U.S., Chinese government officials has spread Russia’s claims that the Pentagon was financing biological weapons in Ukraine. Chinese government officials repeated the conspiracy theory at news conferences, in the press, and on official social media accounts—in Chinese, Arabic and English. The White House called out both countries for their coordinated disinformation campaign and expressed concern that they might be providing cover for a Russian biological or chemical weapons attack. Conspiracy theorists within the U.S. have picked up on the lab disinformation and begun to spin it for their own propaganda campaigns, including Fox News host Tucker Carlson and QAnon followers. Journalist and national security critic Glenn Greenwald has opined that the theory might be true.

Ukraine has achieved important strategic and military objectives through its information campaigns, and has rightly convinced most of the world of the morality of its cause. However, is has lost some important information battles. Russia has won important information battles in China, India, and most of Africa. And since the information war will go on long after the shooting stops, Russia’s victories have ramifications for international relations going forward. States who continue to buy into the Russian narrative may continue to have strained relationships with the U.S. and the West. As the U.S. and its NATO allies strive to develop stronger relationships with resource-rich African states—in no small part so they can reduce resource dependence on Russia and China, they may find that they are not trusted as political and business partners. The Russian narrative may also harm the U.S.’s long quest for greater security cooperation with India.

China, of course, stands to gain most from supporting the Russian narrative. With Western business interests leaving Russia in droves, often for good, China is the state best poised to step in and fill the economic vacuum. The U.S. has long feared a stronger Sino-Soviet partnership. The information war, combined with the economic war, has cleared the way for that fear to be realized.

The U.S. and its allies would do well to launch a campaign to counter Russian and Chinese disinformation and spread pro-Western messages abroad. The consequence of silence could be a loss of global influence to our adversaries. The U.S. has already seen how Russian disinformation can wreak havoc on our own elections and sow social discord. Russian disinformation in a Chinese megaphone can have far greater consequences for global stability. The U.S. must keep speaking the truth—loud enough for the world to hear.