The Road To Melitopol Is Mile after Mile Of Russian Trenches

The Ukrainian army’s first attempt to punch through Russian lines south of Mala Tomachka, in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast, ended in disaster on June 8 when a couple dozen Leopard 2 tanks, M-2 fighting vehicles and Leopard 2R breaching vehicles got stuck in a minefield.

But the Ukrainians apparently found a way around the Mala Tomachka minefield—and now reportedly are advancing south toward Robotyne. Next stop: Tokmak. And after that: Melitopol and the Sea of Azov.

Liberating Melitopol from more than a year of Russian occupation would cut in two the Russian and allied army in southern Ukraine—and could set the stage for an eventual operation aimed at booting the Russians from Crimea, nearly a decade after they annexed the strategic peninsula.

That’s easier said than done, however. The 50 miles from Robotyne to Melitopol along the north-south T0401 road are a tangle of Russian trenches and bunkers. Russia’s powerful 58th Combined Arms Army, with 10 or more brigades and regiments and tens of thousands of troops, mans the fortifications.

Elements of Ukraine’s new 10th Operational Corps plus supporting units attacked along the Tokmak axis as part of Kyiv’s long-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive beginning the night of June 4. The 33rd Mechanized Brigade and 47th Assault Brigade rolled south from Mala Tomachka while the 65th Mechanized Brigade probed Russian positions to the west.

After two weeks, the Ukrainians had advanced a few miles and were just north of Robotyne. On Thursday they reportedly attacked the Russian 291st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment in its trenches adjacent to the town.

Ukrainian forces meanwhile have infiltrated as far south as Sadove, 10 miles south of Robotyne on the northern edge of Tokmak, Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed on Wednesday. “Pray to God it’s a single group of 50 to 100 people,” Prigozhin said.

It’s possible Prigozhin is mistaken or exaggerating. It’s also possible Ukrainian partisans or special operations forces are active near Tokmak.

By the same token, it’s unlikely a Ukrainian mechanized force somehow managed to bypass Robotyne and speed all the way to Sadove without attracting a lot of attention from the 58th CAA. Quick advances by large mechanized formations are what you’d expect if and when the Ukrainian counteroffensive achieves a major breakthrough.

While Kyiv’s brigades have breached Russian lines on a small scale along multiple axes across Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts, they’ve yet to open a major breach—one through which uncommitted forces such as the 117th Mechanized Brigade and 82nd Air Assault Brigade might roll.

That doesn’t mean Ukraine is losing and Russia is winning, the Institute for the Study of War in Washington, D.C. explained. “The overall slower-than-expected pace of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations isn’t emblematic of Ukraine’s wider offensive potential.”

“Ukrainian forces are likely successfully setting conditions for a future main effort despite initial setbacks,” ISW added. The hints and rumors of Ukrainian activities along the Tokmak axis—probes around Robotyne and reconnaissance farther south around Sadove—are consistent with these shaping operations.