The Phoenix Suns Could Give The Sixers A James Harden Lifeline

James Harden’s reported interest in returning to the Houston Rockets as a free agent this summer is perhaps the NBA’s worst-kept secret. Rumors started emerging ahead of Christmas Day, and ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski confirmed Monday that there’s a “very real possibility” of Harden leaving the Philadelphia 76ers to sign with the Rockets.

According to SiriusXM NBA Radio host Brian Geltzeiler, the Rockets aren’t the only other team catching Harden’s eye. The Phoenix Suns are also “prominently” on his radar after they swung a blockbuster deal for his former teammate, Kevin Durant, at this year’s trade deadline.

If the Sixers can’t/don’t re-sign Harden this summer, they should vastly prefer Phoenix as his landing spot. Whereas the Rockets are projected to have enough salary-cap space to sign Harden outright, the Suns are well over the projected $134 million salary cap and would have to acquire Harden via some type of trade.

Harden can (and likely will) become an unrestricted free agent by declining his $35.6 million player option for the 2023-24 season. But if he was intent on forcing his way to Phoenix instead of Houston, he could pick up the option as part of an opt-in-and-trade. That would prevent the Suns from being hard-capped, which will happen if they acquire him via a sign-and-trade instead.

If Harden wanted a raise from his $35.6 million option, the Suns would have no choice but to sign-and-trade for him. That would make them hard-capped, which means they could not go over the first salary-cap apron (projected to be roughly $169 million) at any point in the 2023-24 league year.

They’d have some work to do to get under that line.

Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are the only two players who are locks to return to the Suns next year. They’ll combine to earn nearly $83.7 million, which leaves roughly $85.3 million to split between the rest of their roster.

Deandre Ayton is heading into the second year of his four-year, $132.9 million max contract, although the Suns plan on exploring trades for him this offseason, according to multiple reports. The same goes for 38-year-old point guard Chris Paul, who has only $15.8 million of his $30.8 million salary for next season fully guaranteed until late June. The only other contracts on Phoenix’s books are Landry Shamet ($10.3 million) and Cameron Payne (guaranteed only $2 million of his $6.5 million salary), along with a $1.9 million club option on Ish Wainright.

Harden’s max salary this offseason is projected to be $46.9 million. If the Suns gave him that amount in a sign-and-trade, they’d have nearly $130.6 million tied up in Harden, Durant and Booker alone, leaving less than $39 million to round out the rest of their roster. A Suns team whose questionable depth already hampered them in their Western Conference Semifinals loss to the Denver Nuggets would become even more top-heavy, albeit with the league’s most talented Big Three.

The Suns would be limited to taking back no more than 125% of the salary they send out in a Harden sign-and-trade, plus $100,000. If they wanted to send Paul back to Philadelphia in a straight one-for-one swap, Harden could receive no more than roughly $37.1 million as the starting salary of his new deal. That’s a slight increase over his player option, but the Suns would be far better off going the opt-in-and-trade route to maintain more financial flexibility if the difference is that minimal.

The Suns could also try to swing a multiteam deal in which they send out both Ayton and Paul and receive Harden in return. The Sixers would have no need for Ayton unless they trade star center Joel Embiid this summer, so the Suns might have to find a third team to send Ayton (and perhaps Paul) to.

The Indiana Pacers jump to mind as one possibility. They were the ones who signed Ayton to his four-year max offer sheet last summer, which the Suns quickly matched. The Pacers proceeded to renegotiate-and-extend the contract of starting center Myles Turner, significantly increasing his salary for last season while tacking on an additional two years and $40.9 million to his deal.

The team-friendly structure of Turner’s contract could be particularly appealing for the Suns, particularly if they’re hard-capped after acquiring Harden via sign-and-trade. He’s set to earn nearly $21 million next season, or roughly $11.5 million less than Ayton, which could help make up the difference between Paul and Harden’s salaries.

For the Sixers, Paul could be a stopgap ahead of a potentially pivotal 2024 offseason. His $30 million salary for the 2024-25 season is fully non-guaranteed until late June 2024, so the Sixers could clear both him and Tobias Harris’ $39.3 million salary off their books simultaneously. Depending on what other moves they make this offseason—particularly whether they sign Tyrese Maxey to a big-money extension—they could have a max-contract slot next summer.

The Sixers might prefer to receive younger players and/or draft compensation in a Harden sign-and-trade since they’d have leverage over the Suns. Then again, Harden could threaten to pick up his player option as part of an opt-in-and-trade or leave for the Rockets instead. The Rockets would have no incentive to agree to a sign-and-trade with the Sixers, as they’d need to keep their bigger contracts on their books for salary filler if/when they try to trade for a second star.

The Sixers would be doing no harm to their long-term outlook by acquiring Paul via a Harden sign-and-trade rather than losing him for nothing to Houston. They’d still have just as much financial flexibility in 2024 as they would if Harden left, and Paul might be able to help keep them afloat in the title conversation until they’re able to pursue more significant changes.

Swapping out Harden for Paul at this stage of their respective careers likely wouldn’t swing the Sixers’ title odds in a positive direction next season. It wouldn’t be a bad short-term Band-Aid until they were better in line for a bigger swing, though.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.