Ukrainian soldiers are seen during their shooting training at the front with US-made weapons in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. (Photo by Mustafa Ciftci/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Here’s the paradox the Trump Administration must face: To achieve real peace in Ukraine, Kyiv must be given significantly more weapons to wage war. An even uglier fact: A Putin win in this conflict will ultimately jeopardize the U.S.
The stark truth about Vladimir Putin is that he still thinks he can win his war to control Ukraine. That’s why whatever Putin may say publicly, or to President Trump or to his amateur special envoy, he has no interest in genuine negotiations to end this bloody conflict and leave Ukraine securely independent.
Putin believes he can fob off threats about sanctions from President Trump. After all, hasn’t the President declared several deadlines before and then backed off?
The Russian dictator believes that his ghastly attrition strategy—which is losing 30,000 Russians a month, down from 40,000–combined with terrorizing missile and drone attacks on civilians will break Ukrainian morale. He also thinks that the U.S. and Europe will grow weary of their involvement in the conflict, enabling Putin to dictate a settlement that makes Ukraine a Kremlin vassal. He then will be in a position to pressure Poland and reduce the Baltic nations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to a Hong Kong-like status. Moldova, once part of the Soviet Union, will again become part of Russia in all but name.
Worse, NATO will be a dead letter. European nations, facing ever stronger populist political pressures that nurture pro-Putin tendencies, will resign themselves to appeasing the Kremlin.
All this will reinforce China’s perception that the U.S. no longer has the stomach to decisively lead the Free World. With its own internal troubles and believing it must whip up nationalist fervor, Beijing may take actions that could seriously risk war with the U.S.
What President Trump does regarding Ukraine in the coming weeks will have profound repercussions for America’s future.
The solutions are simple:
• Give Ukraine the means to not only hold off Russia’s ground offensives but also push back its armies. Losing ground will shatter the belief that attrition will lead to victory.
• Remove all restrictions on military targets within Russia. That the Pentagon has quietly imposed such restraints only reinforces Putin’s assumption that the U.S. really wants to wash its hands of this war.
• Impose muscular sanctions, including depriving Russian banks access to the critical financial infrastructure that enables banks around the world to transfer and receive funds from each other.
• Use the $300 billion in frozen Russian bank reserves to help pay for Ukrainian weapons.
The U.S. is further undermining its credibility with Russia and China by not providing weapons directly to Ukraine. Washington wants to sell the weapons to NATO countries, and they will transfer them to Ukraine.