The NBA’s New CBA Makes It Harder For The Milwaukee Bucks To Retool

After a shocking first-round playoff loss to the No. 8 seed Miami Heat, the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks appear headed for significant changes this offseason.

The extent of that retool will be limited by the NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement, though.

The 2023-24 salary cap is currently projected to be $134 million, and the luxury-tax line is projected to land at $162 million. The upcoming CBA contains a new second salary-cap apron that severely restricts teams which go $17.5 million above the tax threshold beginning this offseason.

With a hefty salary commitment already in place and a number of notable players set to become free agents, the Bucks will have to balance their retooling efforts around whether to cross the second apron. If they do, they’ll be far more limited in their ability to add external help this offseason.

Between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Bobby Portis alone, the Bucks already have $94.2 million in salary on their books next year. Add in Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million), Grayson Allen ($8.9 million) and MarJon Beauchamp ($2.6 million), and the Bucks are already up to nearly $115.2 million in guaranteed salary, which leaves them roughly $64.3 million below the second apron.

Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, Wesley Matthews and Jae Crowder are among the Bucks’ notable free agents, while Khris Middleton ($40.4 million) and Jevon Carter ($2.2 million) could join them by declining their respective player options. If the Bucks retain Lopez and Middleton (whether via opt-in or in free agency), those two alone could push them dangerously close to the second apron.

Among other restrictions, teams that cross the second apron will not have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception in free agency. That takes away one of their best ways to add external talent, as they’re otherwise limited to offering only veteran-minimum contracts. Along with teams over the first apron ($7 million over the tax line), they also can’t receive players back in a sign-and-trade.

If Middleton picks up his $40.4 million player option, the Bucks would be at nearly $155.6 million with only seven players under contract. They’d have less than $24 million to round out the rest of their roster—including re-signing Lopez—before crossing the second apron and losing access to their taxpayer MLE.

The Bucks can only hope that Middleton declines his player option and expresses a willingness to re-sign on a lower annual average value (something in the four years, $120 million range, perhaps?). Shaving $10 million from his potential contract would allow Milwaukee to make Lopez a competitive offer while still maintaining flexibility under the second apron.

The Bucks have Bird rights on both Lopez and Middleton (if he becomes a free agent), which means they’re allowed to exceed the salary cap (and the luxury-tax line) to re-sign each of them. Outside of the restrictions placed on teams above the second apron, there’s nothing in the new CBA preventing them from offering both players more money than any other team can.

Still, the loss of the taxpayer MLE could make the Bucks wary of going over the second apron. That will be their best chance of landing an impact free agent this summer, and they may need to retool their bench if some combination of Carter, Crowder, Ingles and/or Matthews leave this offseason.

The Bucks owe their 2023 first-round pick to the Los Angeles Clippers, which means they’ll only have the final pick in this year’s draft (No. 58). The odds are firmly against whomever they choose emerging as an immediate difference-maker, though. Isaiah Thomas was the last Mr. Irrelevant to accomplish anything of real note in the NBA, and only a handful of players selected between Nos. 51-60 over the past decade even developed into rotation players.

Since the Bucks won’t be able to receive players in sign-and-trades and won’t have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception if they go over the second apron, they’d only have the No. 58 pick and minimum contracts with which to bring in external talent this offseason. They might be fine with that after winning an NBA-high 58 games during the regular season—perhaps they would have beaten the Heat had Antetokounmpo not gotten hurt in Game 1—but other teams will have far more flexibility to improve.

Holiday’s long-term future further complicates matters for the Bucks. He’s under contract for nearly $35 million 2023-24 and has a $37.4 million player option for the following season, but it sounds as though he won’t be re-signing with the Bucks—or any other team—beyond the 2024-25 season.

If Holiday maintains that stance on retiring at the end of his current contract, the Bucks might need to start considering a larger-scale overhaul. They could run back their core next year by re-signing Middleton and Lopez, but losing Holiday for nothing after the 2024-25 season would a significant blow for a team that owes its unprotected 2025 first-round pick to either the New Orleans Pelicans or New York Knicks and its unprotected 2027 first-round pick to New Orleans. The Pelicans also have the option to swap first-rounders with the Bucks in 2024 and 2026, which likely takes a full rebuild off the table for Milwaukee.

There are no easy answers here for the Bucks as they weigh how to tweak their roster amidst a disappointing end to a promising season. They’ll be one of the first test cases for how much the new CBA limits expensive contenders in their attempts to retool.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.