Giannis Antetokounmpo has spent the better part of this season holding down the fort in Milwaukee, with Khris Middleton in and out of the lineup. Out of sheer necessity, Antetokounmpo is leading the league in usage rate (38.7%), a number even higher than that of Luka Dončić, and his raw numbers are frankly absurd as a result of it.
32.1 points, 11.8 rebounds, 5.2 assists, and 13 free throw attempts per game for the former two-time MVP. Those are video game numbers, and represent the extent of Antetokounmpo’s talent and impact to the Bucks.
But, there’s substantial risk associated with that usage.
The Bucks are unquestionably looking at the championship trophy as their goal of the season, and rightly so. They took the Boston Celtics to seven games last season without Middleton, and likely would have returned to the Finals had he not gotten injured in their first-round series against the Bulls.
Now, the hope is Middleton makes it back in time to be able to ramp up over the course of the regular season, and then entering the postseason fully healthy and in rhythm.
But until then, it’s crucial the Bucks find a way to lessen the burden of Antetokounmpo, as to minimize injury risk. It’d be nothing short of catastrophic if he were to miss a large chunk of time, and it’d be an even tougher pill to swallow if the cause was overuse.
So, where should the Bucks look?
They’re already getting solid production out of both Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez, to the point where you could argue that neither can really add much more than what they currently are.
Instead, head coach Mike Budenholzer should look to get Bobby Portis more involved.
The 6’10 forward played just over 25 minutes per game in December, and should have fresh enough legs to justify a minutes bump, as the Bucks enter 2023.
More than that, Portis should also have more shots funneled his way. He converts at over 68% of his shots near the basket, has been very effective when taking long two-pointers, and while he’s only hitting 31.7% from outside this season, he hit 41.8% from three-point range over the two seasons prior. So there’s merit in the idea that his three-point shot will come around.
(Portis is coming off back-to-back 20/10 games where he’s canned 50% of his 12 total three-point shots.)
This isn’t to say Portis should be given 20+ shots per game, or anything of the sort. Currently at around 12 shot attempts per night, any increase needs to be realistic. And frankly, it needs to come organically. Perhaps the Bucks approach should center around an increase in touches as opposed to shots, solely to take more pressure off Antetokounmpo when he’s out there.
Portis has been working as a play finisher since his college days at Arkansas, and is used to having the ball in his hands both inside and out. That gives him the flexibility to dictate outcomes a fair bit, as defenders will have to defend him from the three-point line.
Portis could initiate more hand-off actions, call his own number, or seek smaller opponents to make a meal of in the post.
Furthermore, an increase in Portis touches will allow Antetokounmpo to free-roam more, which will be easier on his body in the long run. The more attention that goes to Portis, the more Antetokounmpo can cut, and play off the ball.
Portis should be playing 30 minutes a night with Middleton out, even if it will force the coaching staff to be a bit creative in their rotation patterns. After all, Antetokounmpo and Lopez take up a good chunk of the interior minutes.
Perhaps, then, scaling back on Antetokounmpo’s minutes as part of lessening his burden is a fair trade-off while Middleton is out. It wouldn’t be the first time. Back in the 2019-2020 season, Antetokounmpo played just 30.4 minutes per night.
This year, though, he’s playing the most minutes (33.7), and taking the most shots (21.5) while playing for Budenholzer, and you have to wonder if that’s the right call when their aspirations are so high.
Budenholzer has always put an emphasis on not running his players into the ground, and in fairness to him, Antetokounmpo is more or less doing that on his own accord. That’s why he will soon need to step in and evaluate whether his superstar needs a break.
With Portis in hand, and perfectly capable of handling more minutes, it wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world to tinker with the lineup.
Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/mortenjensen/2022/12/31/the-milwaukee-bucks-should-play-bobby-portis-more/