The Miami Heat Have Unanswered Questions At The Wing Spot

It was an uneventful summer for the Miami Heat, who lost forward P.J. Tucker to the Philadelphia 76ers, drafted Nikola Jović, and recently extended Tyler Herro to $130 million.

While the Herro decision was a big one, it nevertheless was a quiet offseason for a team that was one victory away from reaching the NBA Finals last year.

That, in and of itself, might be bad enough when most Eastern Conference teams improved – some, quite substantially – but it gets a little bit worse for the Heat.

Unplayable in the postseason

As all NBA observers came to know during last year’s playoffs, head coach Erik Spoelstra could not justify playing Duncan Robinson big minutes. The sharpshooter, while tremendously effective at spacing the floor, was a mess defensively, and didn’t offer up any other offensive skill to counter increased defensive attention to his shooting.

Robinson is still on the roster, and it would appear unlikely that he enters this season as a drastically different player than before.

Theoretically, that’s fine seen through the lens of the regular season, where playing Robinson over 25 minutes per game is more defensible. Teams aren’t as keyed in on role players, there’s minimal preparation time given the amount of games being played, and Robinson can thus be a positive asset to help Miami reach the postseason yet again.

Given Miami’s clear aspirations, however, it’s fair to wonder if the approach of playing Robinson heavy minutes in the regular season, only to significantly diminish them in the playoffs, makes sense.

The Heat would spend 82 games finding a certain rhythm to their games and lineups, only to alter them dramatically when Robinson proves unplayable later on.

Perhaps, then, the superior path is one where the Heat invest in immediate cohesion, at the cost of Robinson’s floor spacing.

Identifying alternatives

As a former All-Star, Victor Oladipo has seen it all. He’s a hard-nosed defender, can make plays for himself and others with the ball in his hands, and has a patience to his game that would serve Miami well in the postseason.

Oladipo isn’t much of a shooter though, which is where Miami may have to make a trade-off. Handing Oladipo a good chunk of Robinson’s minutes is an investment in enhanced season long chemistry for the Heat, which should make them more effective when games begin to truly count.

Obviously, the Heat would still be staring one big issue in the face: They won’t have enough shooting.

For as good as both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are, neither is known as a shooter. It at times work to the detriment of the team that both operate primarily within 15 feet of the basket, and it directly correlates to the high volume of three-pointers that Robinson has been responsible for over the past few years. They’ve been extremely valuable.

Should Oladipo edge out Robinson in the rotation, Miami will end up having an suffocating defense, but would risk struggling mightily in creating proper driving lanes for both Butler and Adebayo, as defenses could just pack themselves in near the paint.

Herro and Kyle Lowry could offset some of that, but Lowry’s age is showing, and Herro is only one man.

Max Strus and Caleb Martin are also going to shoulder some responsibilities at the wing, and both can function as floor spacers.

Strus, however, suffers a bit from the same offensive woes as Robinson in that he isn’t a creator, thus making him somewhat one-dimensional. He is a better defender, and physically stronger to match opponents, which may be enough for Spoelstra to give him the nod over both Robinson and Oladipo.

Strus did start all 18 of his games in last season’s playoffs, but hit just 37.4% of his shots, including a pedestrian 33.1% from downtown. Was that a one-year blip, or is he better suited to come off the bench in a lesser role? That’s one question the Heat will need to answer this year.

Finally, there’s Martin.

Unlike Strus, Martin saw his minutes decrease, and by a lot, in the postseason. On paper, he makes an otherwise snug fit with Butler and Adebayo, given his shooting capabilities (41.3% from downtown), defensive upside, and even some underrated ball handling skills. In practice, he wasn’t trusted to the same extent, which means he has yet to fully convince the coaching staff of being a player they can rely on for extended minutes when the going gets tough.

Something has got to give

Ultimately, Miami finds themselves with four players who will all be used in some variety this season, but all of whom have question marks hovering over them. Who can start? Who can fit best with the team’s stars? Who is flat-out the best player? Anyone of those questions have different answers, making it impossible to single out one player as the full-time answer.

Executing a consolidation trade later in the season would be optimal for Miami, but teams are well aware of the issues presented here.

Robinson’s specialty isn’t worth taking on his contract, which runs until 2026 and is paying him over $16.9 million this year.

Oladipo’s injury history is certainly one to give teams pause, as is his lack of floor spacing.

Strus is a gamble who is up for a new contract at the end of this season, lowering his trade value by a fair bit.

Martin is interesting, but is he capable of becoming a starter? And if he is, why would the Heat then be willing to give him up?

As it stands, the Heat will have to run their wings by committee, which likely finds them in the exact same place 12 months from now, as the one they’re in now. That seems less than optimal, which puts the onus on management to find a more established ground before they enter the playoffs next April.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.