PARIS, FRANCE – JUNE 27: A general view of the Eiffel Tower at dusk as the Olympic Rings are displayed during previews ahead of the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on June 27, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
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One of the foundational facts of commercial air travel is that the number of people flying globally is closely linked to world Gross Domestic Product. That is as the economy continues to grow over time, so does the demand for air transportation and by extension, the need for new aircraft to fulfill that demand as well as to replace older aircraft that are economically obsolete.
Dips in world GDP, occasioned by recessions (dot-com bubble, fiscal crisis), pandemics (SARS, COVID) or wars (Ukraine, 9/11) can disrupt the monotonic increase of air travel demand, but eventually the curve reverts to the mean. In this case, that mean is roughly 4 per cent year over year, and world Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM’s) – a paying passenger travelling a mile – have recently returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Most of those RPM’s are utilized for leisure travel which is estimated to make up as much as 85% or more of miles flown. Business passengers are only around 12 to 15% of overall travel but they are vastly more profitable, making up as much as 75% of profits for a given flight. This is because business travelers tend to purchase premium seats, often make last minute changes which incur fees or higher prices and spend more on amenities.
A more recent development has been the blending of business and leisure travel to create a category called “bleisure.” While adding a few days at a destination that was the focus of a business event for personal reasons has always existed, the category has expanded as a result of the pandemic where remote work was normalized and schedules became more flexible.
The result has been for airlines to expand their offerings away from a three class system (First, Business, Economy) to more gradations such as First, Premium Economy, Economy Plus or Comfort Plus and Coach. This allowed airlines to match their service and price offerings to capture the willingness of the flying public to pay for something in between First Class and steerage.
People gathering at the Colosseum monument in Rome on April 7, 2023, prior to the Way of the Cross (Via Crucis) prayer service as part of celebrations of the Holy Week. (Photo by Andreas SOLARO / AFP) (Photo by ANDREAS SOLARO/AFP via Getty Images)
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Another effect of the rebound in air travel has been the strain on popular destinations. Coming out of the pandemic, people pulled out their “bucket lists” and engaged in “revenge travel.” As a result iconic sites, such as the Coliseum, the Eiffel Tower or the Louvre drew record crowds to their host countries.
For the last 30 years, France has been the most popular tourist destination representing 8% of global tourism with over 100 million visitors. Spain, US, Italy and Turkey round out the top five destination countries. China which had been in the top five before the pandemic has dropped lower due to travel restrictions and reduced preference.
However, there are only so many “A list” sites to be visited, while the travel push continues to grow. A result of the ever increasing swell of tourists to a finite set of iconic destinations has been “overtourism.” To combat the crowding and destruction, many locations have instituted tourist caps, time entry reservations, fees, activity bans and restrictions on accommodations.
ATHENS, GREECE – JULY 20: Atop the Acropolis ancient hill with Parthenon temple during a heat wave on July 20, 2023 in Athens, Greece. The Acropolis of Athens and other archaeological sites in Greece announced reduced opening hours due to the heatwave conditions. (Photo by Milos Bicanski/Getty Images)
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Mount Fuji has instituted a daily visitor cap as well as a hiking fee. Popular US National Parks such as Yosemite and Glacier use caps and reservation systems. The Acropolis uses timed entry permits as well as the restored Notre Dame in Paris. Florence has instituted a ban on short term rentals in its historic city center and Machu Pichu closed the site for a period due to concerns regarding deterioration from high foot traffic.
This problem is only going to become more severe as the 4% increase year over year funnels more visitors to the limited set of high profile locations. One reaction is to move to new sites (such as Croatia, Norway, India, Cambodia). Another is to shift away from the high summer season.
Traditional summer locations such as Cape Cod, the Hamptons or Jackson Hole have seen increases in visitors during shoulder seasons. The tremendous heat during the summer in Europe in 2025 has made visiting in fall much more attractive. Visitors are motivated by a less crowded, more authentic experience as well as concerns regarding the environment and sustainability.
Passion based travel – fueled by social media posts – has also prompted shifts away from the traditional sites and focused on more remote or less well known destinations and is often associated with special events or festivals.
Studies show that as income rises, a population begins to travel – for both business and leisure reasons. The good news is that commercial aircraft, which currently have a delivery backlog of seven years or more, will stay in high demand. The bad news is that the strain on passengers, airports and tourist destinations will not abate any time soon, if ever.