The Indiana Pacers Are On The Clock

While the Indiana Pacers ended their season outside of the play-in tournament, there were plenty of positives to take away from their 2022-2023 campaign.

For one, Tyrese Haliburton turned into an All-Star, averaging 20.7 points and 10.4 assists per game in just his third NBA season. Furthermore, the 23-year-old sported a TS of 62.4%, which is elite for a perimeter player. He connected on 49% of his total shots, 40% from behind the three-point line, and converted on 87.1% of his free throws. Flirting with a slashline of 50/40/90 is always impressive, especially at that age.

Then there is the evolution of Myles Turner, who played his best season as a pro. The 6’11 center averaged 18.0 points per night, a career-high, as well as 7.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. He got to the free throw line 4.5 times per night – a significant increase over previous years – and sported a TS of 65.1%, also an elite number.

Finally, the Pacers also hit on their top selection in last year’s draft, when they tapped Bennedict Mathurin sixth overall. The 6’5 off-guard proved to be an instant scorer, getting to the rim at will, earning himself close to six attempts per night. He balanced that with 100 makes from three-point territory and did so at the age of just 20.

All these elements are terrific signs for the future. The team also have Andrew Nembhard, Jalen Smith, and Aaron Nesmith, Isaiah Jackson, and Jordan Nwora under the age of 25, so the team isn’t lacking in the youth department.

However, the Pacers need to make a significant upgrade to the roster this summer, while they still can. Haliburton is eligible for an extension before the start of next season, and will undoubtedly command a max-level deal. When that contract activates on July 1st 2024, his new deal will suddenly take up a large portion of Indiana’s cap sheet.

That means – in short – the upcoming summer is where the Pacers will need to make a splash, while they can still afford it.

To do that, they need to rid themselves of players on contracts that doesn’t align with the player’s production. Case in point, Daniel Theis. While Theis does offer behind-the-scenes value as a mentor to Indiana’s young players, his salary of $9.1 million next season is pretty significant.

Theis played just seven games this season, making him a fairly large question mark for teams around the association, who likely will be disinclined to take on his salary unless they were paid to do so.

The Pacers can remove certain cap holds from the equation to improve their situation, specifically that of George Hill, who is occupying $5.2 million of next year’s cap unless his rights are relinquished. The same goes for Lance Stephenson, James Johnson, Kendall Brown, and Gabe York, all occupying $1,989,698 on next year’s number. Oshae Brissett, who was in the rotation this season, has a $1.8 million cap hold and is a free agent.

The biggest splash the Pacers could make to clear money is to find a taker for Buddy Hield, who remains one of the league’s best three-point shooters. Hield averaged 16.8 points, and 5.0 rebounds this season, and he canned 288 three-point shots, on 42.5% accuracy. His $19.2 million next season should be easy to find a new home for, and Indiana could try their luck and offer Hield to a team for free, for the payment of also taking on Theis.

(The Pacers will likely have to expand the deal into more teams, as very organizations can – or want to – take on almost $30 million in money. Indiana also would have to accept something, such as a Top 55 protected second round selection.)

Including Theis in such a deal would be difficult, but if achieved, the Pacers would have 10 players on the books going into next season, totalling $65,230,130.

Of course, there are also three first round selections to account for.

We don’t yet know where Indiana’s lottery selection will fall. It’s currently slotted for the seventh overall pick, which has a cap hold of a little over $6 million.

The 26th and 29th selections, which are already locked in, account for $2.3 and $2.2 million. If the Pacers do receive the seventh overall pick, they will take on approximately $11.5 million total via their three draft selections, leaving them with 13 players on a cap hit of a little under $77 million.

The cap, expected to land at $134 million, allow the Pacers to make substantial offers to free agents, assuming of course the aforementioned course of action is realized.

The Pacers, who are lacking wings, could make strong offers to both Gary Trent Jr and Josh Hart, potentially even signing both of them. That would even be in play should the Pacers jump up significantly in the draft, thus increasing their lottery pick cap hold.

As presented, the Pacers have options this summer. They hold enormous flexibility in terms of trade assets via their three first – and two second – round picks, plus they have the ability to absorb money in deals.

What’s crucial is to get something done sooner than later, as to avoid losing those options when Haliburton’s contract triggers next summer.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.