The Impact Of Russia’s War In Ukraine Extends Beyond The Battlefield

TOPSHOT – People walk among graves at the Field of Mars cemetery in Lviv on August 24, 2024 to commemorate the fallen soldiers on the occasion of the Independence Day Of Ukraine, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Ivan STANISLAVSKY / AFP) (Photo by IVAN STANISLAVSKY/AFP via Getty Images)

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On Thursday, the Russian Federation launched a drone and missile strike across Ukraine. During the attack, two missiles damaged an American electronics factory in western Ukraine. Several other civilian areas were also hit, and dozens were injured during the Russian bombardment.

This Russian missile strike was the latest attack on nonmilitary areas within Ukraine. Over the past three and a half years, drones and missiles launched by the Russian Federation have targeted shopping centers, schools, apartment complexes, nursing homes, hospitals, cultural centers, and other residential areas across Ukraine. Many of these places have been destroyed, and experts at the World Economic Forum have estimated that it will cost over $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine.

First-Order Consequences Of Russia’s War In Ukraine

Over the past three and a half years, Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian areas have displaced one-fourth of Ukraine’s total population. Nearly seven million Ukrainians have fled to neighboring countries in search of safety. An additional 3.7 million remain internally displaced within Ukraine.

Others have been unable to flee from the Russian drone and missile strikes. According to the United Nations (UN), there have been nearly 50,000 civilian casualties during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The UN also found that the Russians have done little to reduce the harm caused to Ukrainian civilians. These events were particularly documented in a UN report published in June.

In a press release about the report, the UN stated that there had been a “significant escalation in recent months in civilian casualties and human rights violations in Ukraine amid intensified fighting and evolving tactics of warfare.” The report also recorded an incident where “Russian armed forces struck at least five hospitals directly, some of them with multiple loitering munitions, suggesting potential deliberate targeting of the hospitals in violation of international humanitarian law.” The UN press release concluded that Russia must have “full respect of international humanitarian and human rights law.” A senior UN official also commented on the report.

“The war in Ukraine – now in its fourth year – is becoming increasingly deadly for civilians,” said Danielle Bell, the Head of the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. Bell added that, throughout the war, the UN has continued to “document patterns of violence that are inconsistent with obligations under international humanitarian law.”

Aside from the Russian attacks on these Ukrainian civilian areas, there have been other first-order consequences as well. For example, the New York Post reported in June that at least 35,000 Ukrainian children had been “abducted by Russian troops and forced into indoctrination programs since the start of the Kremlin’s brutal three-year war.” Additionally, reports by The New York Times and Radio Free Europe have found that at least six Ukrainian cities have been destroyed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022. Several other cities, villages, and towns have been partially destroyed. Finally, it is estimated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteer battalions have had thousands of casualties during the war.

In other words, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a profoundly negative impact on Ukrainian society. Despite this devastation and destruction, the Russian invasion continues without an apparent end.

Second-Order Consequences Of Russia’s War In Ukraine

But the impact of Russia’s war does not end in Ukraine. There are also second-order consequences resulting from the war that have impacted the international community.

For example, the Russian invasion has impacted global food prices. During the initial stages of the war, the Russian Black Sea Fleet established a blockade on the Black Sea. This prevented the Ukrainians from exporting goods to other countries around the world. As a result, this led to a global food crisis. According to the European Commission, Ukraine is one of the “top agricultural exporters in the world.” Millions of citizens worldwide rely on Ukrainian agricultural exports, and this is a primary source of food for these countries.

But the Commission reported that Russia’s war has led to a “dramatic drop in [Ukraine’s grain] exports.” Furthermore, this drop in Ukrainian grain exports “resulted in major food security concerns for millions of people around the world.”

Many of these individuals who rely on Ukrainian food exports reside in Asia and Africa. As a result, the European Union and the UN established mechanisms to transport Ukrainian agricultural goods outside of Ukraine by bypassing the Russian blockade. While the Russian barricade on the Black Sea has since been lifted, the Commission reports that Ukraine’s current wheat exports (two million tons) are half of its pre-war distribution (four million tons). As a result, many countries in Asia and Africa still remain impacted by this food crisis, and it is unclear how and when this will be resolved.

Russia’s war has also influenced the global economy. According to a report published by the World Bank Group in June, Russia’s war has raised global inflation due to disruptions caused to food markets. This is because the restriction of agricultural goods exported by Ukraine resulted in a global price increase on food, thus negatively impacting consumers. As a result, the International Food Policy Research Institute has reported that the EU, Australia, and Canada have increased their wheat exports to try and offset these rising global food costs.

Finally, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has impacted the global energy market. When the full-scale invasion began, several countries across the European continent announced that they would reduce their reliance on Russian oil and gas. They also shifted their focus from fossil fuels to renewable energy and liquefied natural gas. As a result, businesses and consumers across Europe have faced high energy prices. This has made heat and electricity more expensive across the European continent, although the European Commission has announced a plan to increase energy efficiency in an attempt to reduce these high energy costs.

In short, Russia’s war has had a significant impact on Ukraine and several countries around the world. Millions of Ukrainian civilians have been forced to flee, and thousands have died during the Russian invasion. In addition, continued Russian bombardments across Ukraine have resulted in the destruction of many residential areas.

Given these events, as well as the impact the war has had beyond Ukraine’s borders, several world leaders have attempted to bargain with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reach a ceasefire agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was most apparent during the summit at the White House last week, where several European leaders met with Zelenskyy and President Donald Trump to discuss an end to the war. These world leaders argue that peace will save many lives, and it will halt the destruction of civilian areas in Ukraine.

But as these world leaders continue to press Zelenskyy for peace, analyses published by The New York Times and Deutsche Welle found that Russia has increased its drone and missile strikes on Ukraine. These reports suggest that Putin and the Russian Federation are not serious about negotiating an end to the war, especially since these attacks took place during the most recent peace summit at the White House.

As a result, Western leaders may need to establish a new strategy on how they can achieve peace in Ukraine. After all, it appears that the current approach has not resulted in an end to the fighting.