The Houston Rockets Come Back To Earth, But Early Success Looks Sustainable

After an 0-3 start to the season, the Houston Rockets ripped off six straight victories en route to the most surprising start in the league. But in games played over the past week, the Rockets went 1-2, winning a nail biter over the defending champion Denver Nuggets, 106-100, and then dropping a pair over the Los Angeles Clippers and Los Angeles Lakers by razor thin margins, 106-100 and 105-104, respectively. Houston heads into Monday night’s matchup with the Golden State Warriors riding a two game losing streak. The Rockets are now also winless on the road at 0-4.

Despite the recent losses, Houston has solidified itself in the early going as one of the better teams in the league. In games played through Sunday night, the Rockets are seventh in net rating at +3.5 and, in what has been a stunning development, fourth in defensive rating, at 107.8. (The Rockets are 19th in offensive rating at 107.8). And over the past two games, both losses, the Rockets have a defensive rating of 106.6, good for sixth in the league during that time frame, a figure which lends some evidence that the turnaround might be sustainable.

Over the next week, the Rockets continue their road trip, visiting Golden State on Monday. They then come home to take on an injury riddled Memphis Grizzlies team on Wednesday before a rematch with the Nuggets on Friday. They’ll then get the weekend off.

With 1/8 of the season in the books, the young Rockets are leaning into an identity. They’re a hard-nosed defense-first bunch that plays at the second slowest pace in the league, a far cry from the last three seasons under Stephen Silas. Their bread and butter offensively is the pick and roll between Alperen Sengun and Fred VanVleet and their offensive preference in crunch time is becoming feeding Sengun in the low block. Dillon Brooks has carried over his All-NBA defensive brilliance from his Grizzlies days. The Rockets are tops in the league in transition defense.

Rocky Start for Jalen Green

This is not the start to the season Rockets brass had hoped for from shooting guard Jalen Green in what is now his third season. Green is averaging 18.2 points per game in his 32.2 minutes but shooting just 39.5% overall from the floor (though 37.5% from 3). His inconsistency is what has been most troubling. After an 11/15 28 point explosion in the November 8 win over the Lakers, Green has shot just 28.1% from the floor overall. He went 1/13 in the win over Denver, 5/16 in the loss against the Clippers, and 3/10 in the loss against the Lakers on Sunday night.

Green’s development is a major point of interest for the Rockets. Now in his third season, he has just one full season remaining on his rookie scale contract after this one and is extension eligible next season. Given that Green’s max salary would constitute 25% of the team’s salary cap, Rockets management will want to ensure that Green is on the track to stardom before making such a burdensome financial commitment. It’s early, but it’s something to keep an eye on.