The Green Bay Packers’ Playoff Hopes Aren’t Dead Yet

This is my December

This is my time of the year

This is my December

This is all so clear

The American rock band Linkin Park sang these lyrics in their hit song, “My December.”

These lines could also have been written for the Green Bay Packers.

Since Matt LaFleur became the Packers’ head coach in 2019, Green Bay is a remarkable 15-1 in the regular season after the calendar flips to December. That includes a 1-0 mark this year after the Packers defeated Chicago, 28-19, on Dec. 4.

So while Green Bay (5-8) currently sits 2 ½ games out of the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC — and is tied for the 10^th spot in conference — perhaps these Packers aren’t dead yet.

Their history of December greatness is proof of that.

“We haven’t given up,” Packers wideout Allen Lazard said after the Chicago game. “This whole year hasn’t gone our way. A lot of our losses have been one possession games, for the most part. A play here, a play there, a turnover there or not being able to make a turnover in some certain situations.

“That’s just kind of been the thing that’s been holding us back, so to speak. I’m just proud of everything. We didn’t quit. We played hard (against Chicago) and I’m expecting the same results these last four weeks.”

Using history as a barometer, the Packers could be poised to embark on a late-season winning streak.

Green Bay has performed remarkably well in December and January regular season games dating back to 1992. In that time, the Packers are 102-40 after November, a stellar .718 winning percentage.

The Packers produced identical 22-7 records (.759) under both Mike Holmgren (1992-98) and Mike Sherman (2000-05), and a 39-18 mark (.684) under Mike McCarthy (2006-18).

Green Bay also went 2-2 under interim coach Joe Philbin in 2018 and was 2-3 under Ray Rhodes in 1999.

LaFleur has been the King of December, though, with an eye-popping 15-1 record in regular season games after November — a winning percentage of .938. Green Bay’s only loss in that time came in the 2021 regular season finale, when LaFleur sat many of his standouts during the second half of a 37-30 defeat at Detroit.

Aside from that, LaFleur went 5-0 in December and January regular season games in both 2019 and 2020, 4-1 last year and is 1-0 this season.

Not only have the Packers rolled late in the year, their average margin of victory in games after November under LaFleur is 10.7 points per game.

“I wouldn’t say it’s anything revolutionary,” LaFleur said. “Just rely on some of the things that we’ve all done in our past and certainly take input from our players, from our coaches, from our strength and conditioning, as well as athletic training staffs.”

Make no mistake, Green Bay’s odds of reaching the postseason are long. Heading into Week 14 — where the Packers had a bye — footballoutsiders.com gave them a 2.1% chance to reach the playoffs.

For Green Bay to find a way into the postseason party, it would undoubtedly have to win its final four games and get plenty of help along the way.

Not only is Green Bay 2 ½ games behind the No. 7 seed New York Giants (7-5-1) for the final playoff berth, the Packers lost to the Giants earlier in the year. That means Green Bay must leapfrog the Giants, as well as eighth-seeded Seattle (7-6), ninth-seeded Detroit (6-7) and stay ahead of Atlanta and Carolina, who are also 5-8.

“I told the guys … we’ve played good enough to beat anybody in the league, and at times played poor enough to lose to just about anybody,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers said recently. “Our highs have been pretty solid.”

The Packers will need nothing but highs down the stretch if they hope to rally and make the postseason for a fourth straight year. The schedule, though, is certainly conducive to a late season run.

The Packers have three of their final four games at home, beginning with the Los Angeles Rams (4-9) on Dec. 19. Minnesota (10-3) visits Lambeau Field in Week 17 and Detroit (6-7) comes to town in Week 18.

Green Bay’s only road game comes Christmas Day, when it travels to Miami (9-4). Overall, the Packers’ final four opponents sport a 29-23 record (.558).

The Packers are likely to be favored in all three home games and will be roughly a touchdown underdog against the high-flying Dolphins. But if they spring the upset on Christmas, anything and everything could suddenly be possible.

That’s because many of the teams Green Bay is chasing have a demanding closing stretch. Here’s a look at the teams fighting for the final playoff spots and their remaining schedules:

No. 6 seed

Washington (7-5-1)

Schedule: New York Giants, at San Francisco, Cleveland, Dallas

Opponent’s combined record: 31-20-1

Opponent’s winning percentage: .606

Analysis: The 49ers (9-4) have won six games in a row and the Cowboys (10-3) have ripped off four straight wins. Washington’s game against the Giants might eventually keep the loser out of the postseason.

No. 7 seed

New York Giants (7-5-1)

Schedule: at Washington, at Minnesota, Indianapolis, at Philadelphia

Opponent’s combined record: 33-17-2

Opponent’s winning percentage: .654

Analysis: The Giants are 0-3-1 in their last four games and sinking fast. New York still must face the Eagles (12-1) and Vikings (10-3) — the NFC’s top two seeds — and travel to Washington. Holding onto a playoff spot won’t be easy.

No. 8 seed

Seattle (7-6)

Schedule: San Francisco, at Kansas City, New York Jets, Los Angeles Rams

Opponent’s combined record: 30-22

Opponent’s winning percentage: .577

Analysis: The Seahawks do have three of their final four at home, but they’ve also dropped three of four games in the past month and fallen out of the playoff picture. And now comes back-to-games against super powers San Francisco and Kansas City.

No. 9 seed

Detroit (6-7)

Schedule: at New York Jets, at Carolina, Chicago, at Green Bay

Opponent’s combined record: 20-32

Opponent’s winning percentage: .385

Analysis: The Lions have won five of their last six games. And their closing stretch of games certainly doesn’t scare anyone. Don’t be shocked if Detroit’s trip to Green Bay in the regular season finale is a for a playoff spot.

In many ways, it seems outlandish to put Green Bay in this conversation. The Packers have just two wins since Oct. 2, and along with the Rams and Denver, are the NFL’s most disappointing teams.

But Green Bay has shown signs of life in recent weeks to make a December miracle seem possible.

For starters, the Packers are averaging 27.3 points per game in their last four contests. In Green Bay’s first four games, it averaged 17.1 points per contest.

“Expectations are a funny thing to try to manage,” LaFleur said. “But certainly I think, as an offense, I think we are showing improvement over the last few games in terms of just a little bit more consistency.”

The biggest reason for Green Bay’s reversal of fortune on offense has been the emergence of rookie wide receiver Christian Watson, who has eight total touchdowns in his last four games. That’s right, eight.

Seven of those TDs were of the receiving variety. And the only other rookies in NFL history to accomplish that were Odell Beckham Jr. (2014), Randy Moss (1998), Mike Ditka (1961), Bill Groman (1960) and Harlon Hill (1954).

“I think the thing I’m most proud about with Christian right now is he really has a desire to be great and he’s not walking around here like he’s arrived in any way,” Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said last week. “I think he truly wants to be the best version of himself that he can be, and he knows there’s still a lot of work out there for him.”

Green Bay’s defense remains an issue. And the special teams haven’t taken the jump many had hoped.

But the good news for Green Bay is that it’s December. And for more than three decades, that’s meant largely one thing — winning.

“We were certainly expected to be competing for a championship and we are still in it,” Gutekunst said. “If we’re able to dig our way back into this thing, we still kinda feel like we have the ability to do that.”

Packer Nation can’t wait to see if they can.