The Green Bay Packers’ Future Looks Just As Bleak As The Present

They kicked the financial can down the road the past few seasons.

They did everything possible to keep the band together for at least one more year.

And they fully expected that group — which went 39-10 from 2019-2021 — to keep churning out hits.

But nothing has gone the way the Green Bay Packers planned in 2022. And those top-40 tunes Matt LaFleur’s teams cranked out the last three seasons have become off key ballads by a band without a clue.

The Packers head to Chicago Sunday with a 4-8 record, their worst at this point in the season since 2006. Green Bay has lost seven of eight games for the first time since the 2008 campaign, which was also Aaron Rodgers’ first as a starter.

Only two teams in the NFC — Chicago (3-9) and the Los Angeles Rams (3-8) — have records worse than Green Bay. And if the NFL Draft happened today, the Packers would hold the No. 8 overall pick.

“I think we’re all collectively frustrated,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “Listen … there is plenty of blame to go around right now. And I’ll always say it because I truly believe it. I mean, it starts and ends with me. I’ve got to be better for our guys, for our assistant coaches, and I’m disappointed in myself.”

He should be.

But so should Joe Barry and his disastrous defense. So should Rodgers, the highest paid player in NFL history who has been the picture of mediocrity this season — even before thumb and rib injuries struck. And so should general manager Brian Gutekunst, who put together this underwhelming roster, then has refused to answer any questions about it the past three months.

Now comes the remarkably sobering news for Packer Nation.

Things could get even worse in 2023 — and beyond.

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According to Spotrac.com — a website that breaks down contracts, salaries and salary cap situations of professional teams — the Packers will enter the offseason about $2.3 million over the projected salary cap of $225 million.

Just five players — quarterback Aaron Rodgers ($31.6 million), left tackle David Bakhtiari ($29.1M), nose tackle Kenny Clark ($23.9M), running back Aaron Jones ($20M) and cornerback Jaire Alexander ($20M) — will account for roughly $125 million, or 55.6% of the Packers’ 2023 salary cap.

Green Bay’s next five-highest paid players — outside linebackers Preston Smith ($13M) and Rashan Gary ($10.9M), inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell ($8.25M), safety Darnell Savage ($7.9M) and cornerback Rasul Douglas ($6.77M) — gobble up nearly $47 million of cap space.

That means Green Bay’s 10 highest paid players will account for $172 million of salary cap space — or 76.4% of the pie.

Only the top-51 contracts count against your salary cap. So the Packers will have just $53 million remaining for the final 41 players on the roster.

That means Green Bay’s roster will be littered with young players, rookie contracts and a good deal of minimum-wage labor — at least by NFL standards.

The Packers will have 16 unrestricted free agents this offseason, including starters such as offensive linemen Elgton Jenkins and Yosh Nijman, safety Adrian Amos, defensive linemen Dean Lowry and Jarran Reed, kicker Mason Crosby, wideout Allen Lazard and tight end Robert Tonyan.

In all likelihood, the Packers won’t have the salary cap space available to make a competitive offer to most of these players. Green Bay might also have to restructure — or release — players at the top of its payroll food chain.

What it all means is several of Green Bay’s top players today will be in different uniforms come 2023.

Good luck chasing a Super Bowl — or even an NFC North title — with those type of salary cap challenges.

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How did the Packers get here?

It’s easy really. They mortgaged the future hoping for immediate gratification.

Now, it appears this could be a lose-lose deal for Green Bay.

Over the past two offseasons, executive vice president/director of football operations Russ Ball re-worked the contracts of several of Green Bay’s standouts. Ball lowered their salary cap hits and pushed the money into the future.

There was logic to those moves, as the Packers won three straight NFC North titles between 2019-2021, reached the NFC Championship Game in both 2019 and 2020, and won more games than any team in football the past three years.

Like any credit card, though, the bill eventually comes due — and the interest payments are a beast.

During the NFL Combine in February, Gutekunst explained why the Packers were re-working contracts and pushing so much money into the future.

“We’ve got a really good football team,” Gutekunst said. “We’re disappointed that we didn’t finish it off the last two years but there’s no reason to think we can’t get right back there and knock on the door and get there. So yeah, I think we’re full forward ahead.

“I think we’ve got as good a shot as anybody to win a Super Bowl (in 2022). That’s our goal. I think we have an opportunity to do it right now.”

That hasn’t come close to happening, though.

Green Bay’s offense was listless for half the season, and while it’s shown signs of life in recent weeks, it still ranks just 23^rd in points per game (19.6). The defense, which was supposed to carry the day while the offense found an identity, ranks 31^st against the run and 22^nd in scoring (23.6).

The Packers made Rich Bisaccia the highest-paid special teams coordinator in football at $2 million per year. But those units have still been lousy and rank 30^th overall according to footballoutsiders.com.

And LaFleur, who had the Midas touch with his team the last three years, hasn’t found the right buttons to push in 2022.

“Obviously, the execution hasn’t been to the level … and if you see repeated mistakes, then you’ve always got to look at yourself first,” LaFleur said recently. “I’ve got to make sure I’m doing my part in regards to holding everybody accountable.

“The repeated mistakes are what’s frustrating. If you put players through it and we don’t execute or don’t communicate the right way, then you’ve got to look at that portion of it, making sure we have the right people in the game so that doesn’t happen. We’ve got to give ourselves a chance.”

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The Packers are about out of chances in 2022, with their playoff odds now down to 2%.

And things figure to be even trickier in the future.

While the Packers are facing salary cap hell and a potential rebuild, many teams inside their own division — and conference — have the type of cap room available to make a major jump.

Chicago is projected to have a remarkable $125 million of salary cap space available this offseason. The Bears also picked up second-, fourth- and fifth-round draft picks after trading away defensive standouts Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn in October.

In essence, this gives Chicago general manager Ryan Poles the ability to completely overhaul his roster and add star power across the board when free agency begins in March.

NFC rivals Atlanta ($72M), the New York Giants ($59M), and Seattle ($58M) rank in the top-five for available of cap space and could all make dramatic improvement if they sign the right free agents.

And NFC North rival Detroit — which currently sits ahead of Green Bay in the standings — ranks 11^th with $29.5M of available cap space. In addition, the Lions own the Rams’ first-round draft pick — which appears likely to be in the top-5 — as well as their own.

Meanwhile, the Packers will be faced with countless tricky decisions just to get their books in line.

Do they fool themselves into believing they still have a chance at greatness with Rodgers on the roster — even though he’s a declining player who will be surrounded by a subpar supporting cast? Do they finally start the Jordan Love-era? And can they get players such as Bakhtiari or Jones to rework their deals — or will they be released?

The Packers did what many fan bases demand of their teams and went “all in” the last two years. For a bevy of reasons, that decision blew up in Green Bay’s face.

Now, the bill is coming due — and it’s going to be a tough one to swallow.