The Gap In The American League Central Is Closing

Last season, the White Sox won their division by the highest number of games, finishing thirteen games above Cleveland. The next largest gap was in the American League East, where the Rays won by eight games. But that division was much more competitive than the American League Central. The next two AL East finishers — the Yankees and Red Sox — both made the playoffs.

The White Sox, meanwhile, were able to coast to a division title even while playing barely above .500 baseball in the second half of the season.

That comfy advantage may have showed itself when the White Sox lost their division series against the Astros in four games.

Headed into the 2022 season, the White Sox are situated to have a tougher time in their division. This might work out to their advantage if they are able to repeat as AL Central champions.

The team that has gained the most ground in the division is the Twins, who won the AL Central in 2019 with 101 wins and won it again in 2020 and then fell all the way to last place in 2021.

Minnesota finished 20 games back and at the bottom of the AL Central, but their new-look roster has them projected to move all the way up to second in the standings, according to the most recent PECOTA projections. Their most notable move of the offseason was signing shortstop Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million deal.

Along with signing Correa, the Twins have been very active in the trade market. On March 13, they executed swaps that brought Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, and Gary Sanchez to town. They also added Kevin Goldstein to their front office — Goldstein’s most recent front office experience was with the Astros during their run to a 2017 World Series championship.

That has brought a sense of rejuvenation to Twins camp this spring.

“There’s just a better energy around this year, and I think us knowing with all the stuff being communicated about teams not trying to win, that kind of being a big topic of the offseason, it’s really great to be part of a team that is clearly trying to win,” catcher Ryan Jeffers told reporters this week.

The newcomers are feeling it, too.

“I think I’ve been here for maybe three minutes and you can feel that there is another level of excitement within the group,” Sonny Gray said.

The Twins are not alone in improving, either. The Tigers, in particular, are on the rise thanks to moves like signing shortstop Javy Baez to a six-year, $140 million contract in November. But in March, every team is feeling good about its prospects, at least publicly.

All the changes in Minnesota and elsewhere in the AL Central have not altered the expectation that the White Sox will still win the division this year. As of March 20, PECOTA was still calling for them to win another division crown by about six games.

That doesn’t have White Sox players feeling cozy about gliding to the top of the standings, however. Speaking to reporters this week, pitcher Dallas Keuchel gave his assessment of the division.

“I think it’s going to be a competitive division, I really do,” Keuchel said. “There are going to be two or three teams at the end that are going to duke it out. But I like our chances.”

Other members of the White Sox feel similarly. They share Keuchel’s expectation that they will still finish at the top of their division, and the general consensus in Sox camp is that the added competition will benefit them.

“Last year, we ran away with the division,” pitcher Lucas Giolito told reporters this week. “It’s good to be challenged throughout the year and stay on your toes.”

The White Sox did not sit completely idle this offseason, but the general consensus among the fanbase is that they could have done more to improve their roster after the lockout ended. They signed Josh Harrison to fill a need at second base and have bolstered their bullpen significantly, but the White Sox could have benefited significantly from more outfield depth, especially in right field. That’s a spot where Nick Castellanos would have made a lot of sense, but he signed with the Phillies instead.

There is still loads of talent in Chicago. On paper, they are among the strongest teams in the American League. Running that talent on the field in 2022 should still be enough to win them a division again, but there is no denying the reality that much of the rest of the AL Central has gotten a lot better.