The ERCOT Grid Passes A Stern Stress Test

AUSTIN, TEXAS JANUARY 25: Ice coats flyover ramps where SH-71 crosses I-36 after a winter storm brought rain, sleet and freezing temperatures to Austin on Sunday, Jan. 25, 2026. (Aaron E. Martinez/The Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images)

Austin American-Statesman via Getty Images

Another major winter storm has come and gone in Texas, and this time the Texas electric grid managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) kept Texans warm and safe without so much as a hiccup. It’s a stark contrast from the deadly disaster caused by major blackouts during 2021’s Winter Storm Uri, when an estimated 300 souls lost their lives. With temperatures forecast to rise well above freezing Tuesday afternoon after three days in a deep freeze, the state’s citizens can breathe a sigh of relief.

A Stern Stress Test for ERCOT

Winter Storm Fern, while admittedly not the same level of event as Uri, was severe enough to give the grid its sternest stress test in half a decade.

And the grid did just fine. It is fair to say that the big winners coming out of this latest test are natural gas, wind, and coal.

The natural gas system maintained its integrity from production through the power plant, providing more than half – and up to as much as 70% at times – of overall generation throughout the event. The legislative reforms enacted in the wake of Uri during the 2021, 2023, and 2025 sessions proved effective and durable.

The reforms included a requirement that operators register critical gas production and transmission infrastructure with the state to ensure they weren’t caught up in any ERCOT rolling blackouts, and winterization of many facilities that are key to grid integrity. Those reforms worked and everyone involved in making them happen can now take a bow. Some critics still contend that investing in winterization of gas infrastructure in Texas is a waste of money, but 25 million Texans who remained safe and warm over the past weekend might beg to disagree.

The state’s huge fleet of wind installations – far and away the largest in the country – also have good reason to be happy after having provided a sizable amount of input throughout most of the storm. As of 6:00 a.m. Tuesday morning, wind was accounting for a very strong 25% of total generation, its highest point since the storm rolled in the previous Friday. Most of the West Texas wind fleet froze up early during Uri as the region was hit with freezing rain. But most of the precipitation in West Texas during Fern came in the form of snow and sleet which didn’t have the same impact on the turbines.

The state’s beleaguered Coal fleet also deserves plaudits for remaining up and running throughout. It’s overall capacity in Texas has been cut by half since 2011, so coal will never again be the biggest contributor on the ERCOT grid, but the plants that remain proved again that the state can rely on coal to be there when it is most needed.

The same cannot be said for solar and batteries, both of which proved to be essentially non-factors throughout the worst parts of the storm due to snow and ice cover, cloudy conditions, and of course, nightfall. Power storage kicked in to contribute a fair amount of input on both Monday and Tuesday mornings but remained dormant the rest of the time.

This lack of contribution and need during a time of crisis will inevitably raise valid questions about the wisdom of tens of billions of dollars having been invested in both sectors in recent years, the cost of which is ultimately worked into industrial and residential bills. It’s hard to ignore the fact that both seem like highly expensive luxury items in Fern’s wake.

Giving Due Credit for ERCOT Grid Improvements

With Fern now moving into the state’s rear-view mirror, this is where the time has come to offer some praise for Texas officials who bore the brunt of harsh criticism and blame for the deadly grid failure during Uri. To be honest, they deserved that criticism for basically having been asleep at the wheel for a decade before Uri hit.

But, to their credit, they learned from their mistakes, unlike their peers in many other states.

Led by Governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, the state government moved fast after Uri’s disaster to reconstitute the boards at both ERCOT and the Texas Public Utilities Commission, and to enact and to enact major reforms to how the system functions. The members of the Texas Railroad Commission, which regulates the natural gas industry, also deserve credit for their quick action in this regard.

No one is saying the ERCOT grid is perfect and doesn’t still have problems – you’d be a fool to say that. But its’ performance during Fern indicates the grid is far more robust and reliable today than it was five years ago, when 300 of my fellow Texans lost their lives amid days-long blackouts.

With temperatures rising above freezing across most all of the state today, Texans can finally take a deep breath and do a little celebrating, at least until the next major polar vortex arrives and the grid undergoes its next big stress test.