The Denver Nuggets Load Up On 2023 NBA Draft Picks, But How Will They Use Them?

In his second NBA draft as the newly-minted NBA champion Denver Nuggets’ lead executive, general manager Calvin Booth has once again made moves to add a first-round selection to the team’s draft day asset arsenal.

In a pair of trades involving only draft picks and no players, Booth has turned Denver’s 2029 first-round pick and their 2023 pick No. 40 into a first-rounder in this year’s draft at pick No. 29, along with two seconds at Nos. 32 and 37.

In the first trade, which in a rare move was agreed upon while the Nuggets were still playing in the NBA Finals, Denver sent their 2029 first-round pick (their only first they were eligible to trade) to Oklahoma City for a 2024 first-rounder and this year’s pick No. 37 from the Thunder.

Soon after the news of that deal broke, the Denver Post’s Mike Singer reported that the Nuggets would likely utilize that newly-acquired 2024 first to move up in this year’s draft.

That notion was validated yesterday as Denver pulled off a second trade, this time with the Pacers, including the 2024 first-rounder from OKC and their own 2023 pick No. 40 in a deal for the 29th and 32nd selections in this year’s draft.

Pick No. 29 moves them into the first round as they enter draft night tonight, and with the addition of picks 32 and 37, the Nuggets become the tenth team in this year’s draft with three or more selections.

Taken collectively, this series of moves which effectively shifts a portion of Denver’s draft capital from the future to the present is clearly designed to optimize the Nuggets’ ability to stay competitive as title contenders in the short term while their core of maximum contract players in Finals MVP Nikola Jokic (28 years old), Jamal Murray (27) and Michael Porter Jr. (24), along with the fourth pillar of Denver’s “big four”, Aaron Gordon (26) are all still in their prime.

Going into next season, the guaranteed salaries of those four players, along with those of other Nuggets including Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Christian Braun, both instrumental rotation players in Denver’s postseason championship run, bring the team’s total payroll right up against the luxury tax, and, according to Spotrac, about $18.7 million under the highly punitive “second apron” of the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA).

As the Nuggets seek to fill out the remainder of their roster while attempting to stay under that second apron, they effectively have no choice but to do so with low-paying contracts. As such, keeping the pipeline of incoming talent they can sign to affordable rookie contracts under long-term team control will be a critical and essential part of their ongoing roster construction. To the credit of Booth and his front office staff, their recent draft pick moves indicate they are keenly aware of these dynamics.

That said, it remains to be seen just how the three picks they hold entering tonight’s draft will come into play, and the fact they now possess them opens up several potential options.

Draft With All Three Picks

The first and seemingly most obvious possibility would be to select players in the draft with all three of their picks. This may, however, not be the most likely outcome. With young players already ahead of any potential new rookies already occupying the aforementioned incoming talent pipeline – namely 2022 first-round pick (by way of trade) Peyton Watson, 2020 first-rounder Zeke Nnaji, and two-way players Collin Gillespie and jack White – it wouldn’t necessarily make sense to overload their roster too heavily on a youth movement at a time the Nuggets look to be competitive now.

This seems even more unlikely considering how highly Denver valued the contributions and leadership of experienced veterans in Jeff Green, DeAndre Ayton and Ish Smith last season. However, one counterbalancing factor could be a new provision in the CBA which allows over-the-cap teams exceptions to sign second-round draft picks, which could be highly useful for a team like Denver trying to stay under the second apron with lower-cost salaries.

Consolidate Picks To Move Up Further

Considering the cluster drafting with all three picks might create, the Nuggets combining two or more of their picks, potentially packaged with a player, in order to move up higher than 29th in tonight’s draft seems like a more plausible outcome. A consummate scout, Booth surely has clearly defined draft targets on the Nuggets’ big board, and if one or more players he covets are still available in the late teens or early twenties but seem unlikely to drop to 29, it would not be surprising to see Denver try to aggressively move up the board to get in range and get the guy they want, bundling pick No. 29 and one or both of 32 and 37 to do so.

And given the success of Christian Braun, who Booth drafted with pick No. 21 in last year’s draft, and who proceeded to make a huge impact as a rookie in the NBA Finals after earning a regular rotation spot through solid regular season play, the Nuggets have good reason to feel a degree of confidence about drafting well the the early twenties range.

Trade For A More Experienced Player

Bruce Brown, an integral and highly impactful Nuggets rotation player through the entire regular season and playoffs since they signed him in free agency last summer, opted out of his 2023-24 player option yesterday. And while it’s not a foregone conclusion that he will part ways with Denver, he will almost certainly receive more lucrative offers elsewhere that the Nuggets cannot match due to contractual constraints. This leaves Denver in the position where they must do their due diligence in being prepared to replace him should he seek “greener” pastures.

Facing the salary crunch created by the second apron, one of the more viable pathways to accomplishing this would be a draft night trade using picks, or a pick and player bundle. Aside from the approximately $5 million taxpayer mid-level exception, this essentially limits the Nuggets to veteran minimum contracts in free agency. In that light, trading for a potential Bruce Brown replacement could provide more fruitful opportunities to acquire a higher-caliber player than Denver might be able to land on the open market.

Everything Is In Flux

There have already been a flurry of trades heading into the 2023 NBA draft, and many analysts are projecting draft night itself to be more active than usual, with a multitude of teams showing an ostensive willingness to trade up, down or out of the draft as suits their needs.

In that sense, much like the Nuggets offense, Booth and his front office team will likely be in read-and-react mode during the draft, with an eye on finding and optimizing their best chance to bolster Denver’s roster and keep the team competitive going forward. Under these circumstances, it’s difficult to predict or project what avenues Booth will pursue, but at the very least, that it will not be a quiet draft night for the Nuggets seems to be a very safe bet.