The Curious Case Of Bahrain’s Disappearing Voters

Bahrainis go to the polls today for the second round of the country’s general election for the 40-seat Council of Representatives.

The Middle East is not exactly renowned for the democratic accountability of its governments, but the ruling powers do sometimes try to provide a veneer of legitimacy by holding elections. However, even when votes do take place, political parties are often banned and the range of candidates allowed to stand is often tightly restricted.

In Bahrain, both these elements are in place, but another curious aspect of this month’s election is the number of locals who have been allowed to cast a ballot.

When the country last went to the polls, in November 2018, around 365,000 Bahrainis were allowed to vote. In November this year, by contrast, the number was just under 345,000, some 6% lower. Given there has been no great fall in the local population, it is a curious statistic.

Figures from the 2020 census – the most recent in the country – certainly suggest the number of voters should be far higher. The country’s total population that year was 1.5 million, of which 712,362 were Bahrainis. The number of local citizens aged 20 years or older (the threshold for voting) that year was 431,352. The population has probably grown a little since then, but even if it had not changed there should have been around 86,000 more people on the voter roll this year.

The authorities have given no explanation for why the number of voters is so much lower than might be expected. A request to Bahrain’s embassy in London for an explanation for this article went unanswered.

The government’s critics do have an explanation though.

Through a web of laws and decrees issued over the past decade, the ruling Al-Khalifa family has steadily eroded the size of the voting population, so that tens of thousands may now be excluded from voting.

Rabab Khaddaj, author of a highly critical report on the election published by the Bahrain Institute for Rights and Democracy (BIRD), said “according to our calculations, between 94,000 and 105,000 individuals have been excluded from the voter bloc.”

Examining the turnout

The authorities reported turnout of 73% in the first round of voting on November 12, but if the number of voters is compared to the likely total adult population – rather than the restricted pool of those allowed by the authorities to vote – then the turnout would probably be closer to 58%.

While the main political opposition societies have been dissolved by the authorities, many groups continue to operate on the fringes and this year they urged their supporters to boycott the polls. The success of that call is hard to gauge, but turnout appeared to be far lower in the Northern governorate, which has historically been seen as Shia-dominated, than in the Southern governorate where Sunnis have been more dominant. The majority of Bahrain’s population is Shia, but the ruling elite are mainly drawn from the Shunni minority, including the Al-Khalifa family.

Turnout was such that, in some constituencies, candidates made it through to second round of voting after attracting just a few hundred votes, such as Salman Al-Hooti who made it to the run-off after receiving just 371 votes for the second seat in the Capital governorate. In the second seat in the Northern governorate, Jalal Kadhem required just 835 votes to top the poll with 38% of the vote.

Also notable was the number of spoilt ballets, or false votes as the Bahraini authorities call them. They totaled 15,707, or 6.2% of all votes cast – a far higher proportion than the norm in other countries.

Criminalized debate

The elections have drawn some critical comments from some international onlookers. In London, Liberal Democrat party MP Alistair Carmichael said at an event in Westminster on November 16 that “Free and fair elections are a lot more than just putting a vote in a box. You have to have a political environment where debate is allowed and not criminalized. Without a debate how do people make a decision?”

Critics say the outcome of the elections is in any case of little importance, given how limited the powers of the chamber are. It has no say in the identity of the prime minister or members of the cabinet – they are all appointed by King Hamad Bin Isa Al-Khalifa. And while it can amend, pass or reject proposed legislation, it can be easily stymied by the upper chamber, the Consultative Council, which is also entirely appointed by the ruler.

Meanwhile, many of the government’s most ardent critics remain in jail, including dual Danish-Bahraini citizen Abdul-Hadi Al-Khawaja as well as Hassan Mushaima, Abdulwahab Husain, Sheikh Ali Salman, Sheikh Abduljalil Al-Muqdad and Dr Abduljalil Al-Singace.

In recent days, human rights activist Al-Khawaja has faced further criminal charges linked to protests he staged after being denied the right to call his daughters from Jau Prison, where he is being held. The authorities have also charged him with offences such as insulting a prison guard and insulting a foreign state, namely Israel.