The Cleveland Guardians Keep ‘Winning Trades,’ But Are They Really?

One thing the Chicago White Sox’s 2022 slide has done, is it has made people acutely aware that the AL Central is not a particularly strong division. The Cleveland Guardians have been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the White Sox’s struggles as they have found themselves in the AL Central title conversation.

The Guardians are presently 40-40, which is good enough for second in the AL Central. They find themselves 4.5 games out of first place, a position they briefly held in June. When the Guardians were playing better, the narrative about winning trades was much more pervasive. However, now that they are regressing back to the mean, that narrative has quieted down again.

When the Guardians traded away Mike Clevinger, they received a massive haul from the San Diego Padres and frankly, this trade appears to be a win. Key word; appears. Clevinger almost immediately got hurt when he arrived in San Diego and missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery.

This season, the emergence of Josh Naylor, not only as an offensive player, but as a personality in Cleveland has helped heal the loss of a personality as colorful as Mike Clevinger. However, Josh Naylor’s emergence has been an outlier in terms of his career narrative. If his breakout is sustainable, this would be a huge win for the Guardians, but there is a chance that his first half performance is an anomaly.

Prior to this season, Josh Naylor never posted a wRC+ over 90, and never amassed a positive fWAR season. So far this season he has posted a 136 wRC+ and 1.3 fWAR. Both are career bests.

The other element here is that Josh Naylor is incredibly limited defensively. He is a minus defender in the outfield and he also plays first base, which is the least favorable defensive position in terms of advanced metrics. Therefore, his entire value is centered around his offense, which contextually is still below average (career 99 wRC+).

On the other hand Mike Clevinger has already posted 0.6 fWAR in just 7 starts in 2022. He’s also looked pretty good considering his long layoff. If he can return to being a 4 fWAR pitcher, the perception of this trade may shift back into the Padres’ favor.

The big revelation from this trade was the Guardians’ ability to tap into Cal Quantrill’s potential. Although he’s not an ace, he’s become a very reliable mid-rotation arm for the Guardians. Quantrill’s numbers and stuff may not jump off the screen, but he is an incredibly solid pitcher in an organization that is known for cranking out solid pitching.

However, Quantrill also has amassed 0.6 fWAR in twice as many starts as Mike Clevinger. If Clevinger is to keep this pace up, he may amass as much fWAR as Quantrill and Naylor combined. Additionally, Owen Miller has become a solid role player for the Guardians, but his hot start has been met with an equally slow summer.

A larger sore spot for the Guardians was the trade of Francisco Lindor. When Lindor was shipped off to the Mets with Carlos Carrasco the response was overwhelmingly negative.

This season, the emergence of Andres Gimenez has taken some of the sting out of the deal, but a team with Lindor, Carrasco, and Clevinger would, in all probability, be better than the current Guardians team.

As fun as Josh Naylor is, as reliable as Cal Quantrill is, as solid as Andres Gimenez is, and as okay as Amed Rosario is, having a handful of okay to good players is not the same as having great players. The Cleveland Guardians should actually feel fortunate that they are getting outlier seasons from Naylor and Gimenez, but they have to be hoping more than anyone, that these performances are the new norm.