The Cleveland Cavaliers And New York Knicks Are On A Collision Course

The Cleveland Cavaliers feel locked into the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. As of March 22, they sit 3.5 games back of the third-seeded Philadelphia 76ers with only eight games to play. With how well the 76ers are playing, that feels like too big of a gap to makeup.

Below them, the New York Knicks are the odds-on favorite to be the fifth seed. The Knicks sit 3.5 games back of the Cavs and are 2.5 games up on the Brooklyn Nets and three games up on the Miami Heat with nine games to play.

Basketball-Reference’s playoff probabilities report has the Cavs as the fourth seed in 90.3% of outcomes. It has the Knicks as the fifth seed in 87% of outcomes. So, barring something (or somethings) unexpected, Cleveland will host New York in round one.

This feels right. Cleveland rates out as a better team — the Cavs are first in net rating, the Knicks are seventh. Both teams feature a top-10 offense, while Cleveland has arguably the league’s best defense and New York is about league average. The Cavs, based on their net rating, maybe should be closer to the East’s top-four instead of step back.

But they should have homecourt advantage in the first round. That’s a big deal for a franchise making its first playoff appearance since 2017-18 and its first playoff appearance without LeBron James since the 1997-98 season. It’s a step up from last season, when the Cavs made the play-in tournament and lost twice.

This is what happens when a team gets Donovan Mitchell — they get better and win more games.

Beyond the Cavs’ return, there’s a lot to like about a matchup with the Knicks. That starts with Mitchell, who thought he was headed to New York last summer before he ended up in Cleveland. Mitchell going up against the team he expected to go against in round one feels big.

There’s also the Jalen Brunson factor. Last year when he was with the Dallas Mavericks, Brunson was a big part in Dallas eliminating Mitchell’s Utah Jazz from the playoffs. For chunks of that series, Brunson scored by going right through Mitchell.

That can’t be the case this year. To Mitchell’s credit, he’s been engaged on defense all season on and off ball. There’s no evidence to suggest that Mitchell is going to loaf and play with that level of effort again if and when he finds himself guarding Brunson or Immanuel Quickley or R.J. Barrett against New York. But Brunson’s involvement offers Mitchell a chance to directly redeem his performance.

Cleveland also has a losing record against New York this year. (The two teams do play one more time this season on Friday, March 31 in Cleveland.) The Cavs won the first matchup on Oct. 30 in Cleveland with Mitchell scoring 38 points; Darius Garland missed the game with the eye injury he suffered on opening night.

In New York on Dec. 4, the Knicks won 91-82 with Mitchell and Garland combining to shoot 13-41 from the field and 5-20 from three. In that game, Cleveland started two-way player Mamadi Diakite and Lamar Stevens.

On Jan. 24 in New York, the Knicks won 105-103 behind 36 from Julius Randle. Mitchell and Garland were a combined 17-41 from the field. Brunson, largely defended by Isaac Okoro, was 5-13 from the field.

Randle’s performance from Jan. 24 is worth thinking about in a full series context. He put up a big scoring number, but was carried by shooting 8-12 from three. The Cavs would be happy to let Randle operate in this way — he’s more dangerous attacking the rim and drawing fouls than he is as a three-point shooter. He can get hot and he’s having the best three-point shooting of his career considering volume and percentage.

On Jan. 24, Randle was 3-9 on two-pointers — well below his season mark of 55.4%. That’s in large credit to how Evan Mobley defended Randle. That feels like something Cleveland can bank on over a seven game series, as Mobley has grown into one of the league’s best defenders.

Randle has a strength advantage. He’s too good not too have a few games of big scoring numbers. But Mobley is too good to let Randle dominate the series.

Cleveland has a center advantage, with Jarrett Allen a step ahead of Mitchell Robinson and Isaiah Hartenstein. In his one game against the Knicks this year, Allen had 24 points and 12 rebounds. The Knicks are probably deeper.

This brings it back to the guards, Mitchell and Garland for Cleveland and Brunson and Quickley for New York. There series probably comes down to who plays better between those two guards, who gets more production from their backcourt.

Garland will be key for Cleveland — they are at their best when he’s pulling the strings with a splash of aggression thrown in. A key to that may be getting him moving off ball as the Cavs have done more in recent weeks. Beyond that, there’s no doubt about Garland’s game fitting in the playoffs — there is arguably no one on the roster more trustworthy with the ball in their hands, Mitchell included.

But it comes back to Mitchell and Brunson, the two big offseason acquisitions who faced off last year in a different conference. It feels right that it may come down to those two if the Cavs and Knicks collide.