The Chicago Bulls Are In Dire Need Of A Better Shot Profile

Before the season, the Chicago Bulls were to install a new offense that was supposed to be more “random”. The idea was to introduce a level of unpredictability that would constantly have opposing defenses guessing.

With Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vučević leading the way, surely such a system could thrive based on their individual skill levels, was the idea.

The Bulls are now 20 games into the season, and they’re sporting one of the worst shot profiles in the NBA.

No other team in the league but Chicago is taking over 10% of their shots from between 16 feet and the three-point line. The Bulls are sitting at 12.3% on the year, while ranking 6th in efficiency from that area.

Last season the team widely ignored the three-point line, and that story has received a sequel this year, as they’re second-to-last in three-point rate, with just 33.2% of their attempts coming from long range.

They aren’t making up for their lack of shooting near the basket, where they rank second-to-last in conversion rate within three feet, hitting just 63.9% of their attempts.

As previously discussed, the Bulls are in bad need of the presence of Lonzo Ball, but until he returns, it’s crucial they find a way to plug some of their current holes, if they are to stay above water as they await Ball’s arrival to the rotation.

One idea could be to give Patrick Williams a bigger role.

Another could be to implement more offensive sets, that has Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu taking more three-pointers within the flow of the offense.

White is already taking 8.8 attempts per game when adjusted to per-36 minutes, but dialing that up even further wouldn’t be a bad idea, as to keep offenses stretched. The 22-year-old is historically a better catch-and-shoot player than he is creating his own looks, and with LaVine, DeRozan, and Vučević all attracting attention on their own accord, White could sneak in under the radar as the player left alone.

The same principle can be applied to Dosunmu, but the onus is more on him to mix up his game. The second-year guard is very selective with his shots, and it would benefit him to develop a slightly quicker trigger, as his 3.2 attempts from range in 29 minutes is far too low for someone that good at playing off of stars.

It is worth noting that neither White nor Dosunmu have been elite shooters this year, sitting respectively at 34.5% and 32.8%, both below league average. However, White is generally better, and he’s been in and out of the lineup, which messed up his rhythm. He’s bound to bounce back from an efficiency perspective, and he tends to go on hot streaks the more shots he gets.

For Dosunmu, it’ll be the tougher transition, and it’ll admittedly be more of an experiment to see if he can find success with more long-range shots. Since that’s going to be a major requirement moving forward, and with Dosunmu up for a new deal next summer, it’s important the Bulls get a sense of where his upside is as a shooter.

Finally, it’s time to look at LaVine. He too should join White and Dosunmu as a player in need of being more assertive from the outside.

LaVine is taking a career-high 46% of his shots from outside, so one might be inclined to think he’s already doing what he’s supposed to do. Yet, LaVine will somewhat frequently seek drives in situations where he’d stand a better chance at pulling up, as his legs aren’t fully up to speed with what he wants to do. Look no further at his 62.3% conversion rate near the rim, a number that sat at 70% last year, as evidence.

LaVine could easily justify taking even more than he is right now, and an average of 10+ attempts from the outside wouldn’t be a decision on his part, as long as they’re created the right way, and aren’t forced.

What the Bulls need to understand is they’re playing at a disadvantage when opposing teams are getting more three-point attempts than they are on any given night.

(Opponents are, on average, getting 4.4 more looks from downtown, and have a total of 87 more shot attempts.)

Those are extra points they have to make up for, and doing so from mid-range could not be more difficult, especially as that burden largely falls on one player in DeRozan.

Remember, there’s nothing wrong with a mid-range shot in and of itself. Quite often it’s a highly useful shot to have in the bag. Building an offense around it in today’s league, however, is an undertaking doomed to fail.

Unless noted otherwise, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball-Reference. All salary information via Spotrac. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.