The Calm Before the CPI Storm, Fed, Semiconductors and More

US futures pointed to a positive start to the trading day ahead, but it is likely to be one of those calm before the storm trading days ahead of the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) tomorrow, a rash of bank earnings on Friday, and a gaggle of Fed speakers making the rounds as well.

Despite Fed officials reiterating inflation remains a problem that will spur additional rate hikes in the coming months albeit at potentially smaller sizes, a battle over how long the Fed will keep rates at elevated levels to quash inflation remains. While Fed officials have been adamant, they see no rate cut this year, a narrative calling for just in the back half of 2023 persists.

Helping fuel that narrative, early this morning in its latest Global Economic Prospects Report, the World Bank now sees the global economy growing by 1.7% in 2023 vs. its 3.0% forecast from six months ago, and 2.7% in 2024. The sharp downturn it now sees ahead is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies.

To be blunt, the cut to this forecast isn’t at all surprising given the PMI and related data in recent months. Rather, we see the World Bank’s forecasting much like that of the International Monetary Foundation, a few beats behind what is unfolding on the economic dance floor.

Semiconductor Industry

The same can be said with the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), which just announced global semiconductor industry sales in November fell 2.9% MoM (a drop of 9.2% YoY).

SIA also shared it concurs with the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization forecast for global chip sales to fall 4.1% in 2023 to $556.5 billion. Again, no surprise given what we’ve heard in December from Micron (MU) and yesterday’s December revenue shortfall at Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . This sets the stage for quarterly results and guidance tomorrow from Taiwan Semiconductor but also adds to the reasons why we are staying on the sidelines with chip stocks for now.

To us the standout news this morning is that Apple (AAPL) is planning to start using its own custom displays in mobile devices as early as 2024. This builds on its chip efforts for its Macs, iPads and iPhones that have pushed Intel (INTC) and soon Qualcomm (QCOM) and Broadcom (AVGO) out from the Apple-halo, adding Samsung (SSNLF) and others to the mix.

We will be on the lookout for more details on this but in addition to reducing its reliance on technology partners, it’s another step in removing the middleman, a potential positive for margins down the road. For now, we continue to rate AAPL shares a Three but as the demand picture becomes clearer, we will look to revisit that rating.

Finally, in a bid to challenge Amazon (AMZN) and Walmart (WMT) , Best Buy (BBY) is offering free shipping on all orders, with no minimum spend required, for those who join Best Buy’s membership program. Previously, an order needed to be $35 or more to qualify for the complimentary shipping. Candidly, we grasp the move but question how successful Best Buy will be given its array of products that are frankly far less than those at Amazon and Walmart.