The Battle Royal Between Forte, Tapit Trice, Angel Of Empire, And Practical Move

The 149th Kentucky Derby field has been smiled upon by the gods of racing — the three-year-old class of 2023 is jam-packed with talent. Topped by the well-proven Forte, whose juvenile career remains really remarkable, he will be thoroughly hounded by the likes of Practical Move, Angel of Empire, and his own impressive stablemate, Tapit Trice. Said more concretely, even the second-tier favorites in the morning line — Mage, Kingsbarns, Two Phil’s, and Derma Sotogake — would make a good horse race.

The embarrassment of riches makes for a very special sort of headache for the players with the eternally insoluble question: Mindful of the many talents and the special stresses of the spirit that any Kentucky Derby puts on a horse, whom can we afford to forget?

To help us divine who’s who in this rollicking eight-to-ten-horse duel, with its rowdy supporting cast of spoilers, we’ll bring in The Bluegrass Wise Man, but first, here’s the daily refresher on post positions and odds. Since it’s Friday, and equine athletes can be scratched until the very last minute tomorrow afternoon, we include the alternate competitors.

(Post Position, Horse, Morning Line)

1 – Hit Show (30-1)

2 – Verifying (15-1)

3 – Two Phil’s (12-1)

4 – Confidence Game (20-1)

5 – Tapit Trice (5-1)

6 – Kingsbarns (12-1)

7 – Reincarnate (50-1)

8 – Mage (15-1)

9 – Skinner (20-1)

10 – Practical Move (10-1)

11 – Disarm (30-1)

12 – Jace’s Road (15-1)

13 – Sun Thunder (50-1)

14 – Angel of Empire (8-1)

15 – Forte (3-1)

16 – Raise Cain (50-1)

17 – Derma Sotogake (10-1)

18 – Rocket Can (30-1)

19 – Lord Miles (30-1)

20 – Continuar (50-1)

21 – Cyclone Mischief (AE) (30-1)

22 – Mandarin Hero (AE) (22-1)

23 – King Russell (AE) (50-1)

(Source: Churchill Downs, 5/5/2023)

The Bluegrass Wise Man, a Kentucky horseman and owner, has been generously advising us with his keen trackside eye and deep knowledge of the Kentucky Bluegrass for many years. Here, with no further ado, is the Wise Man.

So, you’re going with Derma Sotogake like Mattress Mack does on Forte, a million on the nose.

Bluegrass Wise Man: No, sir, no way. I will say that Derma Sotogake at 10-1 in the morning line seems a little underpriced. He did win the UAE Derby, and it was a big-money win and a hundred points that got him here, but the message there is we shouldn’t confuse a big-money Gulf win with a win against a field like this one. Can he be there at the line? It’s the Derby, anybody can. But he’s gonna have to make a step up to beat Tapit Trice and Forte in the same horse race. Can he make that step? The Churchill oddsmakers think that is as likely as Practical Move doing that. I don’t think he’s that good a bet in this race. I do like the horse due to the fact that the Japanese have figured something out, and they have a lot of good American stock that they are working with.

Speaking of challenges, doesn’t even Forte face an uphill climb?

Bluegrass Wise Man: Exactly my point. In his case, in the sense that all of them do face the Derby for the first and only time in their lives, and this year’s field is a monster, yes. Now, recently, some of the handicappers and TV personalities are bashing Forte. They seem to think that his Florida Derby was sub-par. I think that’s bull. I know he is the chalk horse but he has answered every call and challenge, and he has been doing it since May of last year. He is a real racehorse with four proven Grade I wins. As far as what kind of trip he’ll have, he’ll break, try to sit off the pace with Irad, get a good position and then make his run starting at the 3/8ths pole. I still think he’s got the best shot of them all this year.

Does Tapit Trice face a bit of an additional uphill climb as a result of his disastrous post position?

Bluegrass Wise Man: Well, no more so than Kingsbarns or Two Phil’s, who are right in there with him. Look, I don’t think the inside posts are as bad for the Derby as they were before the new 20-horse starting gate. That said, the 5-hole is not ideal, but Louis Saez can work it out with Tapit Trice. They are going to simply find a spot, get in a good rhythm and work themselves into the race. If he can be playing mid pack coming into and out of the first turn, I think that works. He’s a Tapit colt, so on pedigree the added distance helps him.

It’s the Derby, so the question of the weekend is whom to toss from consideration in your exotics. Mage? Verifying? Jace’s Road? Rocket Can?

Bluegrass Wise Man: There is no real blazing speed in the race. I actually like Verifying. I see Jace’s Road being near the front and then packing it in. Rocket Can has been training well, and Bill Mott is the master, which is why that horse is getting some buzz from the players. He has been running in top company. He did maybe duck Forte in Florida Derby and went to the Arkansas. His post is a tough one, but it has been done from there. And he has to improve but likely will. Mage has something to like, but he is so lightly raced. That said, his sire is on fire. He will come from off the pace. Even though he was second to Forte in the Florida Derby I’m not at all sure he is good enough to hit the board in this crowd.