‘The Batman’ Tops ‘F9’ To Become Fourth-Biggest Covid Era Blockbuster

The Batman ended its fifth week in theaters with $352.5 million in domestic earnings. We’re probably looking at a $6.6 million sixth-weekend gross for a $359 million 38-day total. Since most big movies, even leggy ones like The Force Awakens, Wonder Woman, Get Out, Inception, Batman Begins, The Avengers, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, and How to Train Your Dragon, earn 87-92% of their domestic total by the end of day 38, I’m of the mind that the whole “from theaters to HBO Max in 46 days” thing will have minimal impact on the picture’s legs as it winds down.

As we saw with everything from A Quiet Place part II in May of 2021 to Sing 2 last Christmas, the movies that pop stick around in theaters even after they become available on alternate viewing platforms. That said, the difference between 87% and 92% is $390 million domestic (essentially tied with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 and Spider-Man: Far from Home) and $412.5 million (essentially tied with Wonder Woman). Moreover, HBO Max or no, Warner Bros. now has to prioritize Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore which is probably going to open with over/under $55 million internationally this weekend.

Regardless, The Batman is absolutely a global hit, with a worldwide cume currently above F9 ($721 million) to become the fourth-biggest Covid-era global grosser. It has outgrossed everything released in theaters since late 2019 save for No Time to Die ($774 million), China’s The Battle of Lake Changjin ($905 million, mostly in China) and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.89 billion, without a penny from China). It’s going to take a run at the James Bond sequel, meaning the top two pandemic-era blockbusters are going to be (for the moment) courtesy of DC’s most popular superhero and Marvel’s most popular superhero.

While Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness is a strong candidate to leap to second or third place in the, uh, Covid box office Olympics, that’s not guaranteed. The question is whether it takes a sequel jump, on a Covid curve and sans the usual $95-$125 million expected from China up until 2020, on par with Iron Man 2 (+6% from Iron Man’s $585 million total) and Ant-Man and the Wasp (+19% from Ant-Man’s $519 million cume) or whether it plays like an MCU event movie akin to Captain America: Civil War (+61% from The Winter Soldier). The latter is likely but not yet guaranteed.

Looking at the summer season, I’d wager only Doctor Strange In the Multiverse of Madness (May 6), Jurassic World: Dominion (June 10), Minions: The Rise of Gru (July 1) and Thor: Love & Thunder (July 8) have even a reasonable shot at surpassing wherever The Batman ends up. That’s partially because, even following a conventionally crowded April, it’s a weirdly empty summer, with two biggies in May (Doctor Strange 2 and Top Gun: Maverick), three in June (Jurassic World 3, Lightyear and Elvis), a handful in July (Minions 2, Thor 4, Nope, DC Super-Pets and Bullet Train) and arguably nothing in August bigger than Kevin Hart and Woody Harrelson’s The Man from Toronto.

The studios are going to have to release that they can’t keep starving movie theaters and still expect the multiplexes to be thriving when they need them for 1600 lbs gorillas. Individually speaking, I get Lionsgate selling Jennifer Lopez Shotgun Wedding to Amazon, Disney sending Turning Red to Disney+, Warner Bros. shifting Black Adam to October and Universal doing day-and-date Peacock releases with some of their “smaller” theatrical films. Consequentially, the theatrical industry is still stuck hoping that one or two tentpoles earn enough to keep the whole ecosystem afloat. Right now, the biggest threat to theaters isn’t Covid, but a lack of wide release multiplex products from their biggest distributors.