‘The Batman’ Opens Soft In China But Tops $515 Million Worldwide

First, the bad news: The Batman earned $3.6 million on its first Friday in China, leading what will likely be a $14 million opening weekend and possibly over/under $35 million cume. That was not a surprise, as A) 30% of Chinese theaters are closed during a resurgence of Covid and B) Chinese audiences haven’t been especially into Hollywood exports since, honestly, 2019.

It’s been almost non-existent since 2020 (save for Godzilla Vs. Kong, F9 and Free Guy), but even in 2019 we saw a potential trend whereby only affirmed franchises (The Fast Saga, the MonsterVerse and Marvel movies) were excelling in China at the expense of almost everything else.

Aquaman earned a stunning $298 million in late 2018, but Shazam! earned just $43 million. Venom earned $269 million in late 2018 but Venom: Let There Be Carnage didn’t even play in China. That’s more about governmental politics than moviegoer interest (none of last year’s various Marvel movies played in China), but Matrix Resurrections earned just $14 million and Wonder Woman 1984 earned $25 million (versus $90 million for Wonder Woman).

Word of mouth is solid (a 9.0 on Maoyan and a 7.8 on Douban), but we’re still dealing with a depressed demand for Hollywood flicks even outside of obvious Covid challenges. As frankly I’ve been saying ever since seeing Gone with the Bullets in IMAX 3-D in late 2014), China’s ability to make their own mega-bucks blockbuster films (The Mermaid, The Wandering Sea, The Eight Hundred, The Battle at Lake Changjin, etc.) and franchises (Detective Chinatown, Monster Hunt, Wolf Warrior) means they have that much less of a need for the Hollywood variety.

That’s very bad news for pre-Covid flicks like Fantastic Beasts The Secrets of Dumbledore or Top Gun: Maverick that were likely banking on solid Chinese box office, but the next wave of theatricals can take that into account when budgeting. Save for a few exceptions, like (fingers-crossed) Fast & Furious 10, Avatar 2 and Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom, I’d wager the over/under $65 million grosses of Tenet and No Time to Die may be the best-case-scenario “new normal.”

Granted, the upcoming MCU movies or the likes of Jurassic World: Dominion or Minions: The Rise of Gru (which, to be fair, cost around $85 million) don’t *need* China if they score big everywhere else (Fallen Kingdom would still have topped $1 billion without China in summer 2018), but it does put pressure for these films to perform closer to best-case-scenario outside of China.

Meanwhile, the Robert Pattinson/Zoe Kravitz serial killer thriller dropped 67% on its second Friday in Japan. The film earned $320,000 to bring its eight-day cume up to $5.1 million. So, no, The Batman isn’t the second coming of Frozen ($267 million in 2014) or even Maleficent ($63 million in 2014). The Dark Knight Rises earned “just” $24 million in summer 2012 while Joker earned $46 million in late 2019.

Otherwise, the likes of Batman v Superman, Aquaman, Wonder Woman and Justice League earned $9-$17 million. The Batman is playing “business as usual” in Japan. The good news is that it’s still a hit without China or Japan. Matt Reeves and Peter Craig’s three-hour, PG-13 action drama earned another $5.025 million on Thursday, dropping just 13% from Wednesday (and just 47% from last Thursday) to bring its 14-day cume to $263.283 million.

The film’s second Mon-Thurs frame, $24.25 million, was down just 38% from its first $38.5 million Mon-Thurs block. That’s a terrific hold, even if you note that there’s essentially nothing else in the marketplace. Unless Japan’s Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie (which even my daughter has never heard of) overperforms this weekend *and* plays to audiences who otherwise might have seen The Batman, we can expect another solid third-weekend hold.

The Batman’s global total is now around $518 million worldwide. The Dark Knight has generally been a domestic-centric franchise, with most Batman movies (Batman, The Dark Knight, etc.) pulling 50% or more of their respective global grosses in North America. It’s currently 51/49, and obviously China isn’t going to change the split all that much. Nor, for that matter, should the film’s debut on HBO Max on April 19. The Batman will likely have made most of its money by day 38 anyway.

Moreover, there’s a year’s worth of evidence from A Quiet Place part II ($161 million from a $57 million Mon-Fri Memorial Day debut), No Time to Die ($161 million from a $55 million debut) and Sing 2 ($157 million from a $39.5 million Wed-Mon Christmas launch) to show that smaller windows don’t excessively impact films that open well amid solid word-of-mouth. Besides, I’m guessing Warner Bros. would prefer that switch from seeing The Batman in theaters to seeing Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald in theaters when the latter opens on April 15.

Moreover, movies, even really leggy movies, like The Force Awakens, Wonder Woman, Get Out, Inception, Batman Begins, The Avengers, Spider-Man, Shrek 2, and How to Train Your Dragon, tend to make around 87%-92% of their money by the end of day 38. Might there be folks who might have seen The Batman in weekend five or weekend seven (or seen it more than once or twice theatrically) who might instead wait for HBO Max? Maybe, but so far the evidence implies that the two can coexist *if* studios still treat the film’s as theatrically-intended releases.