The Alternate Theory Is That Summer Travel Will Be Far Easier Than It Was Last Year. Here’s Why.

What if everybody has it wrong, and air travel this summer is a smooth proposition for most passengers?

The summer of 2022 featured meltdowns of every conceivable type, after passengers all decided one day in March to book post-pandemic summer travel. One Wall Street analyst said demand was “insatiable.” Airlines, airports and the Federal Aviation Administration were unprepared and understaffed.

On the theory that whatever happened yesterday will happen again tomorrow, many prognosticators expect a repeat. But Daniel Shurz, senior vice president commercial at Frontier Airlines, sees it differently. “Summer will be busy and customers have long lines when it’s busy, but I think we’re heading for a good summer travel season,” Shurz said in an interview.

Sure, expectations are low. “People are looking back to a year ago, when we saw a sudden return to higher-than-normal demand,” he said. The industry – the airlines, the FAA and the airports were all sort of put out by how sudden that was. The difference today is no one is going to be caught (unaware). We know it’s coming.”

Air traffic control understaffing was a big problem in 2022, especially at the Jacksonville Center that oversees flow in and out of Florida, but the agency appears to have stepped up in 2023. “The big challenge is Florida,” Shurz said. Last year, “Jacksonville was meaningfully understaffed, which they only disclosed later,” he said. “Here we are a year later and the FAA has been proactive: that’s a sign that things are improving. There was much better performance over spring break this year. They told us they made progress. The proof is in the pudding, and we saw the proof.”

Additionally, in March the FAA cut minimum flight requirements at congested airports in the New York area, saying it would allow airlines to turn in up to 10% of their slots for the summer, but not lose the slots to other carriers.

On the JetBlue April 26^th earnings call, President Joanna Geraghty expressed frustration with the FAA’s Northeast policy, saying “We’re were very prepared for this summer, most airlines are, unfortunately the FAA is not.” At the same time, Geraghty said JetBlue will not seek to transfer unused capacity, but rather will increase its capacity to handle disruptions with higher crew reserves and more spare aircraft.

Meanwhile, American Airlines said Wednesday that its April operations included its best-ever April controllable completion factor and a fifth consecutive first place finish among peer airlines for D0 departures, or departures exactly on schedule. “These busy few weeks are a sort of dress rehearsal ahead of our busiest, most important travel period of the year: summer,” wrote David Seymour, chief operating officer, in a letter to employees.

Of course, weather problems, led by thunderstorms, will impact summer travel and airlines’ ability to recover will determine how broad the impact is.

Frontier is bigger than it was in 2022 or 2019 as the carrier expands. July capacity is up 36% from 2019 and up 31% from 2022. Shurz said the carrier is well-prepared with sufficient numbers of pilots, flight attendants and airport workers. The carrier isn’t impacted by the New York improvement: it has only four daily LGA departures.

Besides preparedness, another factor that could lead to improved summer performance is the continuing bleisure phenomenon. Bleisure combines business and leisure travel, a trend that emerged during the pandemic, largely because the ability to work remotely reduces reliance on Friday/Sunday travel. Also, travel can be spread out around holidays.

Regarding Memorial Day on Monday, May 29, Shurz said Frontier bookings show some passengers leaving Thursday and returning Tuesday. “Broadly speaking, we are seeing de-risking (in bookings), not to say there isn’t broad demand,” he said. “The Sunday of Thanksgiving week is still the best day, (but) traditionally in summer people have spread out travel more, and we will keep seeing this.”

Meanwhile, Frontier, with a load factor around 85%, is promoting its GoWild! Pass, which enables unlimited summer travel. On Tuesday, the carrier dropped the price to $499 for purchases through May 31. The pass is valid for unlimited travel through Sept. 30 on Frontier routes in the U.S., including Puerto Rico, as well as Mexico, the Caribbean and Central America. Earlier this year, Frontier offered the pass for $699. Travelers who buy tickets pay fees of a few dollars.

Shurz called GoWild “the most affordable way to travel this summer, bar none” and said “We wanted to give passengers another opportunity.” He said the carrier has been pleased with the response but declined to provide sales figures.