The AL East Champion Baltimore Orioles Aren’t Going Away

Admit it—you didn’t see the Baltimore Orioles coming. Neither did anyone else. Before the season, Baseball Prospectus projected them to win 74 games and FanGraphs gave them a 1.3% chance of winning the AL East. When the dust cleared, their 101 wins led the American League and was the second most in MLB behind the Atlanta Braves’ 104.

The primary source of their success has been their outstanding farm system. For the past few years, they’ve been lauded for developing one of the best collections of promising young talent in the league. No one expected so many of those players to arrive so soon or play so well immediately.

The biggest advantage of building from within is that nearly all of their top players are under team control for several more years. This should keep them among the elite teams in MLB for the next 3-5 seasons at least.

Pre-Arbitration Orioles

Many of Baltimore’s best players are still in their first few years of MLB experience. They will receive pre-arbitration contracts close to the MLB minimum salary in 2024, which will be $740,000. Players need three years of service time at the end of the regular season to be eligible for arbitration unless they qualify for “Super Two” status—players who rank in the top 22% of service time with between two and three years of experience. Super Two players go to arbitration a year early, but this does not get them to free agency any sooner.

Catcher Adley Rutschman leads a stacked class of players with between two and three years of service time, all of whom will stay under team control through 2027. The 25-year-old switch-hitter has back-to-back seasons with an OPS over .800. He followed up a 5.2 rWAR rookie season (Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR) with 4.3 rWAR in 2023. Dean Kremer started 32 games for the club this year with a 4.12 ERA. With two years and 112 days of service time, he probably won’t qualify for Super Two. Closer Félix Bautista’s 3.0 rWAR was the third-best in MLB by a reliever, but he will miss the 2024 season following Tommy John surgery.

The Orioles’ two best players by rWAR began the year with less than a full year of service time and will stay under team control through 2028. Third baseman/shortstop Gunnar Henderson belted 28 home runs and amassed 6.3 rWAR. He is the presumptive favorite to win the Rookie of the Year Award. Kyle Bradish led Baltimore starting pitchers with a 2.83 ERA and 4.9 rWAR. In the bullpen, Yennier Cano was nearly as effective as Bautista with a 2.11 ERA.

A handful of rookies who debuted this season could be key contributors to the club through at least 2029. Infielder Jordan Westburg posted 1.2 rWAR in less than a half year of playing time. Grayson Rodriguez will be a fixture in the starting rotation and possesses All-Star potential. Outielders Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad populated preseason top-100 prospect lists.

There are even more reinforcements on the way. The Orioles currently have three players on MLB Pipeline’s Top 100 who have yet to reach the big leagues. The headliner is shortstop Jackson Holliday, who is widely considered the best overall prospect in the sport. He was the first pick in the 2022 draft and was just named the 2023 Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America.

Arbitration-Eligible Orioles

Four Baltimore players have one year of arbitration remaining before reaching free agency after next season. Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn both play right field and first base and had .797 and .801 OPS respectively. Left-hander John Means was an All-Star in 2019, but missed most of the last two seasons with injuries. He started four games in September and figures to rejoin the rotation in 2024. Lefty reliever Danny Coulombe had a 2.81 ERA in 61 games.

Center fielder Cedric Mullins and left fielder Austin Hays both have two more years of arbitration and can reach free agency in 2026. Mullins has 12.4 rWAR, 61 home runs, and 83 stolen bases over the last three years. Hays batted .275 with 16 home runs and made the 2023 All-Star team.

Several more players will be eligible for their first crack at arbitration this offseason. The most notable of them is first baseman Ryan Mountcastle, who has 73 home runs since 2021. Starting pitcher Tyler Wells recorded a 3.64 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Utility infielder Ramón Urías won a Gold Glove in 2022, but the arrival of so many excellent prospects has pushed him into a backup role.

Free Agents

Only six players on the Orioles roster have at least six years of service time and five of them will become free agents this offseason. The most important contributors they stand to lose are outfielder Aaron Hicks and starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty. Hicks enjoyed a .381 on-base percentage with the Orioles after the New York Yankees cut him in May. Gibson led the AL with 33 starts, but had an elevated 4.73 ERA and his 198 hits allowed was also the most in the league. Flaherty was a mid-year trade acquisition who had a 6.75 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances with Baltimore.

Only one Orioles player has a guaranteed salary for 2024: backup catcher James McCann. He will receive $12.15 million in the last year of his contract, but the New York Mets will pay $9.5 million of that total.

Baltimore’s payroll this season was just over $71 million, which was the third-lowest in MLB. The team arrived in the postseason way ahead of schedule, so the front office should have plenty of room in the budget to supplement the roster with free agents. Of course, that assumes the youngsters leave any playing time available for anyone else. Their young core should keep them in playoff contention for the foreseeable future.